工业硅期货早报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, the demand remained low, and the cost support increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8490 for the 2605 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continued to decrease, the demand in various downstream sectors also decreased, and the cost support remained stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48240 - 50370 for the 2605 contract [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: The supply last week was 71,000 tons, a 13.41% decrease compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: The demand last week was 60,000 tons, a 20.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the demand remained low [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9769.7 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On February 13, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 805 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 200,800 tons, a 2.52% decrease compared to the previous week; the main port inventory was 136,000 tons, a 1.45% decrease compared to the previous week [6][15]. - Disk: MA20 was downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule decreased and remained at a low level, the demand recovery showed signs, and the cost support increased. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8490 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: The production last week was 20,100 tons, with no change compared to the previous week. The production schedule for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers last week was 10.05GW, a 3.17% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 300,600 tons, a 6.14% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells in January was 41.44GW, a 11.37% decrease compared to the previous month, and the inventory of external sales factories last week was 9.31GW, a 1.52% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a profitable state. The production of components in January was 35.2GW, a 9.04% decrease compared to the previous month, and the domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month; the European monthly inventory was 34.2GW, a 9.26% increase compared to the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,420 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On February 13, the price of N - type dense material was 52,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3945 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 349,000 tons, a 2.34% increase compared to the previous week, and it was at a high level in the same period of history [9]. - Disk: MA20 was downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [9]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continued to decrease, the demand in various downstream sectors also decreased, and the overall demand showed a continuous decline. The cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48240 - 50370 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of changes, and the social inventory and sample enterprise inventory also changed [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of various contracts and spot prices of polysilicon showed different degrees of changes, and the weekly total inventory increased [17]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon were presented, and the cost trends of different regions and specifications were also shown [19][35]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - The disk price trend and basis trend of polysilicon were presented, and the cost trend of the polysilicon industry was also shown [22][67]. 3.4 Inventory and Production Trends 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - The inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and the production and capacity utilization trends were presented [25][29]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - The inventory trend and production trend of polysilicon were presented [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were presented, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance situations [42][45]. 3.5.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was presented, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance situations [69]. 3.6 Downstream Industry Trends 3.6.1 Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC in the organic silicon industry were presented, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [48][50]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of the aluminum alloy industry were presented, as well as the demand situations in the automotive and wheel hub sectors [56][61]. 3.6.3 Polysilicon Downstream - The price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry were presented, as well as the cost - profit trends of components and the photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends [72][84][89].