2025年下半年坎帕拉房地产市场绩效评估

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable but cautious outlook for Kampala's property market entering 2026, with long-term fundamentals remaining supportive, particularly for industrial, suburban office, and convenience-led retail assets [9]. Core Insights - Kampala's real estate market showed resilience in H2 2025, driven by macroeconomic stability, contained inflation, and sustained infrastructure investment, with economic growth strengthening to 6.3% in FY 2024/25 [4][12]. - The residential sector experienced modest softening, particularly in prime expatriate neighborhoods, due to increased apartment supply and shifting tenant demographics [5][54]. - The office sector transitioned into a tenant-favorable cycle, with rising vacancy levels in older buildings and stable rental rates for Grade A+ offices [6][78]. - The retail sector remained resilient, supported by strong footfall growth, although average spending per visit declined [7][100]. - The industrial sector outperformed all asset classes, with occupancy levels consistently above 80% and firm rental rates driven by record coffee exports and preparations for oil production [8][9]. Economic Overview - Economic growth rate for FY 2024/25 was recorded at 6.3%, with inflation remaining below the Bank of Uganda's target of 5% [10][15]. - Uganda achieved a Balance of Payments surplus of US$2.37 billion for the year ending October 2025, the highest in over 15 years [11][14]. Residential Sector Summary - The prime residential market saw a decline in rental rates for two-bedroom and three-bedroom units by approximately 10% and 9% respectively, with occupancy levels stable at around 83% [55][60]. - Increased supply of one-bedroom units has intensified competition, leading to downward pressure on rental levels for larger units [56][67]. - The short-let market continued to grow, particularly in secondary neighborhoods, supported by lower entry costs and improved building quality [54][69]. Office Sector Summary - The office market faced rising vacancy levels, particularly in lower-grade buildings, with Grade A+ rents remaining stable at approximately US$18 per square meter [79][80]. - Demand for smaller office spaces remained strong, driven by startups and SMEs adapting to hybrid working models [88][92]. - The supply pipeline includes over 200,000 sqm of office space expected to be delivered over the next two years, despite a slowdown in new developments due to political uncertainty [91][94]. Retail Sector Summary - Retail footfall increased by 15% year-on-year, although average spending per visit declined by 1% [105][111]. - The transition from informal trading to formal retail developments is evident, with suburban retail markets gaining traction [102][100]. - International brands outperformed smaller retailers, benefiting from stronger brand recognition and structured promotional strategies [113][112].