瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic rubber-producing areas are in the off - season, the output in northern Thailand is decreasing, and the output in southern Thailand is also entering the low - production period. The upstream supply is in the seasonal production - reduction period, and the raw material prices are firm [2]. - During the Chinese Spring Festival, the overall trading was sluggish. Recently, the general trade inventory in Qingdao has continued to accumulate with a large increase. Next week, as downstream enterprises gradually resume work and production, the inventory accumulation rate may narrow, but the terminal replacement demand is still restricted by the resumption rhythm of logistics and infrastructure and consumer wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The real terminal demand will gradually be released after March. Attention should be paid to the domestic inventory changes and the post - holiday resumption of work and procurement sentiment of downstream tire factories. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract was 17,030 yuan/ton, a increase of 715 yuan; the closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract was 13,795 yuan/ton, a increase of 615 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 200 yuan/ton, a increase of 80 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,235 yuan/ton, a increase of 100 yuan. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract was 162,068 lots, a increase of 21,833 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract was 47,522 lots, a decrease of 263 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 37,237 lots, a decrease of 3,430 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,717 lots, a increase of 282 lots [2]. - The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 50,601 tons, a decrease of 202 tons [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,800 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a increase of 550 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,975 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene BR9000 was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract was - 1,710 yuan/ton, a increase of 25 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract was - 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 731 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.47 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.89 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.54 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 62.3 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, a increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, a increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 19.93 million tons, a increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 39.63 million tons, a increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 42.4%, a decrease of 18.3 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 59.44%, a decrease of 13.32 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.88 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.41 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, a increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.74%, a increase of 4.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 20.96%, a increase of 2.57 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 26.1%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 26.09%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points [2]. 3.6. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [2]. - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 66.77 million tons, a increase of 6.1 million tons or 10.05% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 11.08 million tons, a increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 55.69 million tons, a increase of 9.67% [2]. - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a decrease of 15.69 percentage points month - on - month and 8.88 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a decrease of 19.90 percentage points month - on - month and 13.74 percentage points year - on - year [2]. 3.7. Weather Information - In the first week of the future (February 23 - March 1, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. There was no red area north of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had an increased impact on rubber - tapping work; the red areas south of the equator were mainly concentrated in Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas was medium - to - low, which also had an increased impact on rubber - tapping work [2]. 3.8. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday, domestic inventory changes, and the post - holiday resumption of work and procurement sentiment of downstream tire factories [2].