沪铜产业日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC is running at a low level, and the expectation of tight ore still provides solid support for copper prices. On the supply side, smelters shut down during the holiday and the number of production days was relatively small. Coupled with the tightening of the import window, the arrival volume decreased, and the domestic copper supply decreased. On the demand side, after the holiday is the traditional domestic consumption peak season, and with the support of policies for consumption, the overall industry outlook is positive. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.67, a month - on - month increase of 0.2874, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. The summary of the view is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 101,510.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,130.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,029.00 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 160.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 300.00 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 50.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 130,714.00 lots, a daily decrease of 8,909.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 60,673.00 lots, a daily increase of 4,904.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 241,825.00 tons, a daily increase of 6,675.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 272,475.00 tons, a weekly increase of 23,564.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,525.00 tons, a daily increase of 250.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 277,089.00 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 600,436.00 short tons, a daily increase of 1,734.00 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 101,455.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,220.00 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 101,720.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,345.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 34.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 55.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 90.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 - month spread is - 83.60 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 0.55 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 50.53 US dollars/kiloton, a weekly increase of 1.84 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,680.00 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 1,710.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 91,380.00 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 1,710.00 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,800.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons per month, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons per month, an increase of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,990.00 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1,200.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 80,950.00 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1,350.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons per month, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, an increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, an increase of 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 ten - thousand pieces, an increase of 415,345.50 ten - thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 43.97%, a daily increase of 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.59%, a daily increase of 0.05%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 31.69%, an increase of 0.0920. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.67, an increase of 0.2874 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Iran issue: Trump said he prefers to reach an agreement with Iran rather than go to war. US envoys Witkoff and Kushner will participate in a new round of US - Iran negotiations. US media reported that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that the risk of military action against Iran is extremely high and it is easy to fall into a long - term conflict. - Trump's tariffs: The European Parliament suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned that countries that do not comply with trade agreements with the US will face higher tariffs. US House Speaker Johnson said that there is no precedent for tariff rebates, and it will be decided by the White House. The British Prime Minister's spokesman said that all measures are under consideration. The Trump administration is considering imposing new "national security tariffs" on six industries, which may cover large - scale batteries, pig iron and iron accessories, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment. - The US Supreme Court announced the ruling of the tariff lawsuit, ruling that the reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and other related tariffs imposed by the US government on relevant trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that it is comprehensively evaluating the relevant content and impact. China urges the US to cancel the relevant unilateral tariff measures imposed on trading partners. China noted that the US is preparing to take trade investigations and other alternative measures to maintain the tariffs imposed on trading partners, and China will closely monitor this and firmly safeguard China's interests. - The director of the Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, Ren Yuzhi, said that a new energy system and a series of sub - field energy plans will be released and implemented. On the one hand, solidly promote the construction of strategic and landmark major projects, safely and orderly promote the construction of the Yalong River hydropower project, layout and construct wind and photovoltaic bases in the "Three North" regions, integrated water - wind - solar bases in the southwest, coastal nuclear power bases, and offshore wind power bases, and optimize the construction of backbone channels for electricity, oil and gas. On the other hand, accelerate the construction of a number of "small and beautiful" projects, implement the project to improve the electric vehicle charging network, layout and construct several integrated bases of wind - solar - hydrogen - ammonia - alcohol, and build a number of solar thermal power generation projects. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that if the employment data in February is strong, he may tend to suspend interest rate hikes. The potential inflation rate is close to the 2% target level [2]