公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.02.09-2026.02.13）：地缘关税扰动并存，市场结构趋势延续-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the event disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday do not strongly drive a comprehensive market rise. The market may continue its characteristics of structural differentiation and high - level volatility. The logic of price increases due to anti - involution, geopolitical disturbances, and supply - demand mismatches in the AI supply chain will run through the whole year. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities in细分 fields. However, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4th, and the detailed 15th Five - Year Plan will be finalized, which means that the policy - favorable expectations for technology and growth will be realized. One needs to beware of the decline risk after the growth style's good news is exhausted. With the in - depth and continuous promotion of anti - involution policies, the demand side will stabilize under the tone of fiscal stimulus and economic recovery. The reversal of the supply - demand contradiction may consolidate the performance inflection point of leading industry companies. Focus on the mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement [3][14]. - The bond market has both bullish and bearish factors. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated maturity of reverse repurchases may put some pressure on short - term market liquidity, but the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive attitude, and the liquidity disturbance is probably controllable. The supply pressure of local bonds will decrease after the festival. However, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has fallen below 1.8%, and the resistance to further decline has increased. The purchasing power of institutional allocation funds may decline after the festival, and the market game will intensify before the Two Sessions with a low probability of interest rate cuts. Although the relative value of coupon allocation still exists, the downward space for bond yields of various maturities may be limited [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - During the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.36%, the CSI 500 rose 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%. The market had some enthusiasm, but the sentiment was restrained, and the trading volume did not effectively increase, remaining at around 2 trillion. The rebound hotspots were concentrated in the TMT and media industries. Pan - technology stocks were significantly repaired, and there was a concentrated rise in sub - directions such as diesel generators and gas turbines related to the North American computing power power outage. The market was still mainly characterized by a structural trend, and all market mainlines were basically centered around the AI narrative [12]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, the US tariff unconstitutional ruling and the Middle East situation injected new uncertainties into the market. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was unconstitutional. Trump's administration then announced a 10% temporary tariff on imported goods for 150 days starting from February 24th and later proposed to raise it to 15%. The US - Iran negotiation was completed without a substantial agreement, and Trump threatened a "limited - scale" military strike on Iran. The release of the US December PCE inflation data and the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes weakened the market's expectation of an optimistic Fed interest rate cut [13]. - Domestically, the long - holiday consumption data was mixed. The travel traffic reached a new high, highlighting the prosperity of the service - based tourism consumption economy, but there was internal structural differentiation. The overall consumption showed the characteristics of increasing volume but decreasing price, and traditional consumption in areas such as film and real estate was weak, while consumption in areas such as return - home tourism, outbound tourism under visa - free policies, and smart wearable devices was strong. The popularity of humanoid robots and AI applications during the Spring Festival Gala is expected to continuously boost the market's enthusiasm for technology [14]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - In the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.14), the bond market performed well. The yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.62BP to 1.31%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 2.03BP to 1.79%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.50BP to 2.25%. Driven by the pre - holiday allocation demand, the bond market continued its oscillatory recovery trend [15]. - The US Treasury yield curve flattened last week (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.23). The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose 5BP to 3.50%, the 2 - year yield fell 7BP to 3.43%, and the 10 - year yield fell 19BP to 4.03%. The decline in long - term US Treasury yields was mainly due to the speech of the National Economic Council Chairman suggesting a possible downturn in the employment market and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in January, which reduced inflation expectations. Although the January employment data was better than expected, as the US stock market continued to weaken and market risk appetite decreased, some funds flowed into the bond market, leading to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields [17]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.41% during the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), closing at 1047.08 points, with most sectors rising, especially in consumption and data centers. In the primary market, 4 new public REITs made progress last week: Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT was under feedback, CITIC Construction First Agricultural Food Group Commercial Real Estate REIT and Guotai Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real Estate REIT were accepted, and AVIC Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT was under inquiry [17]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation for each fund. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, balanced, and growth styles, and the style distribution is roughly balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [21][22]. 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: The value style includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. The index selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [25]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and switch to more cost - effective stocks when the cost - performance of held stocks decreases. The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [25]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunities of performance and valuation of high - growth companies and discover "dark - horse" companies in high - potential fields. The index selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [28]. 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 15 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31][32]. - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, Commerce and Retail, Consumer Services, Textile and Apparel, Food and Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [32]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communications, Computer, Media). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36]. - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, Machinery, Power Equipment and New Energy, National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, Communications). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [41]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, Non - ferrous Metals, Steel, Building Materials, Basic Chemicals, Banks, Non - bank Finance, Real Estate, Comprehensive Finance). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 5 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [44]. 2.4. Money - Market Enhancement Index - Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that surpasses money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds among passive index - bond funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [46]. 2.5. Pure - Bond Index - Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while ensuring drawdown control. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [50]. - Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It aims for excess returns relative to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a stable upward net - value curve. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, adjusting the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [51]. 2.6. Fixed - Income Plus Index - Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index: The equity center of the index is positioned at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income plus funds each period, focusing on those with an equity center (total equity position considering convertible - bond and stock holdings) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. It considers both the risk - return ratio and the holding experience. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index: The equity center of the index is positioned at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index: The equity center of the index is positioned at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity, mainly screening for funds that can obtain stable returns on the bond side without credit downgrading and have strong stock - picking ability and offensive ability on the equity side. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible - Bond Fund Selection Index: The index selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible - bond investment in bond market value of no less than 60% in the latest period and no less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. An evaluation system is established from the fund - product, fund - manager, and fund - company dimensions, considering factors such as long - and short - term returns, drawdowns, risk - adjusted returns, and the timing and bond - selection abilities of fund managers. Five funds are selected to form the index [64]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets, with investment targets including Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and US dollar bonds. According to credit ratings, they are usually divided into investment - grade and high - yield products. Six funds with stable returns and good risk control are selected to form the index [67]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: The underlying assets of REITs are mainly mature, high - quality, and stable - operating infrastructure projects with relatively clear cash - flow expectations and relatively limited unit - net - value volatility. Ten funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity are selected to form the index according to the underlying asset types [68].