瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of February 12, the domestic methanol-to-olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 85.16%, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. There was no adjustment in plant operation during the week, and the average weekly start-up increased after the previous restart of the plant [3]. - The overall supply in the market increased as domestic gas-based plants gradually resumed and reached a high load before the Spring Festival. It was expected that both ports and the inland would accumulate inventory during the holiday. Currently, the load of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was not high, with a recovery expectation after the Spring Festival. The ports would enter the destocking stage, but the terminal demand was difficult to recover quickly, and the overall rigid demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the restart time of two MTO plants in East China [3]. - Due to the great uncertainty in the Middle East situation, it might affect the normal production of Iranian methanol in the future. Although inland enterprises transferred part of the inventory pressure through pre-sales before the festival, the downstream digestion was slow, and the post-festival procurement demand was still weak. Attention should also be paid to the inland spring maintenance and the destocking after the post-festival demand recovery. The MA2605 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2300 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2285 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 97 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol was -19 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 13 yuan/ton [3]. - The position volume of the main methanol contract was 745,441 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 8,040 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -79,256 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 57,961 lots [3]. - The number of methanol warrants was 9,994, with no week-on-week change [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,220 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,850 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change [3]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 370 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 77 yuan/ton [3]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change. The CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change [3]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 300 euros/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was -58 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.0447 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 36,600 tons. The inventory at South China ports was 387,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 15,400 tons [3]. - The methanol import profit was 10 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.734 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 316,400 tons [3]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 340,300 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons. The methanol enterprise start-up rate was 92.07%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start-up rate was 18.51%, with a week-on-week decrease of 11.53%. The dimethyl ether start-up rate was 5.38%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.54% [3]. - The acetic acid start-up rate was 80.09%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.63%. The MTBE start-up rate was 67.87%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.14% [3]. - The olefin start-up rate was 84.08%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. The methanol-to-olefin on - paper profit was -909 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 113 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 28.46%, with a week-on-week increase of 4.7%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 24.81%, with a week-on-week increase of 2.8% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 24.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.18%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 24.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.18% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of February 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 7.61%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week increase of 9.75%. Most Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia methanol enterprises had a good inventory - clearing and pre - selling rhythm before the festival, and currently most enterprises continued to have no inventory and a situation of queuing for loading [3]. - As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 36,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 15,400 tons. The methanol port inventory increased slightly this week, and 198,100 tons of explicit foreign vessel unloading was recorded during the period [3]. - The possibility of a reduction in Iranian methanol due to geopolitical conflicts had increased again. The instability in the Middle East situation provided support for market sentiment. If the US - Iran conflict escalated, it would drive up the cost of crude oil and methanol [3].