中国消费：开局总体稳健

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected return above 10% over the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The consumption data during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, validating the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at stabilizing consumption and highlighting the recovery of service-oriented and experiential consumption compared to traditional retail [5]. - The report anticipates that the decision-makers will continue the positive momentum established during the Spring Festival, with further targeted and gradual easing measures expected around the "Two Sessions" to stabilize expectations and support demand [5]. - Leading restaurant operators with significant scale advantages and strong cost control capabilities, as well as core duty-free operators benefiting from long-term policy advantages, are expected to achieve relative gains as the consumption cycle normalizes [5]. Summary by Sections Spring Festival Consumption - The Spring Festival consumption was better than expected, with key retail and catering enterprises showing a year-on-year sales growth of 5.7%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rates of 4.1% and 2.7% during the Mid-Autumn Festival [1]. - Over 20.5 billion yuan in consumption vouchers and subsidies were issued by local governments, effectively supporting demand [1]. Restaurant Sector - Increased dining demand was driven by higher travel frequency, milder weather, and longer holidays, with New Year's Eve dining reservations increasing over threefold year-on-year [2]. - Major dining brands and supermarkets launched diverse ready-to-eat and semi-finished meal boxes, catering to family gatherings and reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards convenience [2]. Tourism Sector - The extended holiday boosted tourism demand, with significant year-on-year increases in customer flow and orders for themed tourism such as ice and snow tours [3]. - Domestic travel orders reached new highs, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing by over 80% and hotel night stays rising by 75% [3]. Duty-Free Consumption - Duty-free sales in Hainan saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 30.8% to 2.72 billion yuan during the Spring Festival, driven by improved supply and operational efficiency following the implementation of new policies [4]. - The strong performance of duty-free consumption underscores the resilience and profitability potential of domestic duty-free channels [4].