美银：全球基金经理调查-当前资本开支过于火热

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment among fund managers, with a net 48% overweight in equities, the highest since December 2024, and a net 40% underweight in bonds, the most since September 2022 [5][51][123]. Core Insights - The February 2026 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey shows that global investor sentiment is the most bullish since June 2021, with a sentiment measure rising to 8.2 from 8.1 [15]. - A record 52% of FMS investors expect a "no landing" scenario for the global economy, indicating confidence in sustained economic growth [17]. - Expectations for double-digit earnings growth are at their highest since August 2021, with a net 24% of investors anticipating a rise of 10% or more in global corporate earnings over the next 12 months [27]. - The survey highlights a significant rotation in asset allocation, with increased investments in energy, materials, and consumer staples, while reducing exposure to US equities and technology [71][75]. Summary by Sections Macro Insights - Most optimism on economic growth since February 2022, with over 10% EPS growth expected since August 2021 [3]. - CIOs are advising CEOs to improve balance sheets rather than increase capital expenditures, reflecting concerns about overinvestment [3][6]. Policy & Risk - 38% of investors believe the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair will lead to higher UST yields and a lower US dollar [30]. - The biggest tail risk identified is the AI bubble, with 25% of respondents highlighting it as a concern [36]. Asset Allocation - There is a notable rotation from US stocks to emerging markets and Europe, with the highest overweight in emerging markets since February 2021 [5][56]. - The allocation to commodities is at its highest since May 2022, with a net 28% overweight [133]. - Investors are most overweight small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks for the first time in 10 months, with a net 18% expecting small caps to outperform [59]. Investor Sentiment - The cash level among fund managers has risen to 3.4%, up from a record low of 3.2%, indicating a slight increase in risk appetite [16][21]. - A record-high net 43% of investors expect value stocks to outperform growth stocks in the next 12 months [63]. Currency and Commodity Outlook - A net 52% of FMS investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, while 23% are overweight the Euro, a record high since October 2004 [140][66]. - The average price expectation for gold is around $6200/oz, reflecting a 23% increase from current levels [45].