LPG早报-20260225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints -节前 week, the futures price mainly went up, and the monthly spread fluctuated greatly due to capital behavior. The basis was -102 (-31), the 3 - 4 monthly spread was -164 (+139), and the 4 - 5 monthly spread was 81 (-10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+0). During the holiday, the external market price increased following the oil price due to geopolitical tensions. PDH profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term operating rate still had resilience. The domestic basis was still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment might occur, and chemical demand was also supported, so the spot price had room for rebound. The 04 contract was priced based on the external market, and its valuation was within a reasonable range, while the 4 - 5 monthly spread valuation was neutral. The external market was still tight in the short term, but there was an expectation of weakening in the second quarter, and geopolitics was a key factor that needed continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Quotes - On February 24, PG2604 closed up at 4582 (+119) during the day session, with the 3 - 4 monthly spread at -285 (-129) and the 4 - 5 monthly spread at 79 (-18); it fell to 4535 (-47) during the night session, with the 3 - 4 monthly spread at -280 (+5) and the 4 - 5 monthly spread at 81 (+2). The absolute price of the external market increased slightly, with the FEI monthly spread at 26 (-2) and the CP monthly spread at 14 (+0) [1]. - The cheapest deliverable in the domestic spot market was Shanghai civil gas at 4150. In Shandong, the price of civil LPG was stable with a slight decline, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4450 to 4580 yuan/ton. Downstream had replenishment demand, but external resources were flowing in, so there was an expectation of short - term stabilization or decline. In the East China market, the price was generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4150 to 4700 yuan/ton. The market transportation capacity had not fully recovered, and refineries needed to digest inventory accumulated during the holiday, so they were not willing to adjust prices. It was expected that the East China market would run stably in the short term. In the South China market, the price was generally stable with minor adjustments, and some areas had a slight increase. The mainstream price of domestic LPG in South China was 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton, and that of imported LPG was 4700 - 5100 yuan/ton. The prices of major refineries in western Guangdong and Guangxi increased slightly, but in the Pearl River Delta, the post - holiday replenishment demand was lower than expected, the upstream supply was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand recovered slowly. The market supply - demand fundamentals were loose, so the price increase momentum was insufficient [1].