Yongan Futures(SH:600927) Yong An Qi Huo·2026-02-25 01:10Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report maintains a bullish view on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. In the short - to - medium term, the stabilization time of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1]. - For aluminum, after the price increase, there is an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand. It is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. If the Iran situation deteriorates, it may cause the aluminum price to rise [1]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation elasticity due to limited long - term capital expenditure and about 100,000 tons of supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, continuous domestic delivery, and stable LME inventory. The short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [6]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, with a slight decline in steel mill production, downstream entering the off - season, a slight decline in nickel iron prices, a small increase in chrome iron prices, seasonal inventory accumulation, and a small increase in warehouse receipts. The short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the Indonesian quota news [10]. - For lead, the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and there is an expectation of looser spot supply. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices in the short term, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the coming week [13]. - Tin prices fluctuated downward this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, if there is a macro turning point in the second half of 2026, the price may fluctuate downward significantly [15]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [19]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is in a de - stocking trend in the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links is further reduced to a low level, there is a large space for calendar spread arbitrage [21]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices continued to fluctuate significantly. The US's ability to siphon inventory is gradually disappearing, but global consumption is still good. There is strong support from rigid demand at the current price. The industry - end support remains. The mid - term view is bullish on copper prices, and in the short - to - medium term, attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price dropped significantly with the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. The spot premium strengthened, and demand was weak. After the price increase, there was an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand. If the Iran situation deteriorates, it may cause the aluminum price to rise [1]. Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, which is expected to ease after the resumption of northern mines after the Spring Festival. In November, Huoshaoyun zinc ingots were officially put into production, and other smelters had limited production increases. In February, production is expected to decrease by 50,000 - 60,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe was average. The market is optimistic about zinc's allocation elasticity, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it was overall weak. On the inventory side, domestic delivery continued, and LME inventory remained stable. The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [6]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, downstream entered the off - season. In terms of cost, nickel iron prices declined slightly, and chrome iron prices increased slightly. In terms of inventory, there was seasonal inventory accumulation and a small increase in warehouse receipts. The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the Indonesian quota news [10]. Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production was driven by profits, and production decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival holiday. Concentrates were in short supply, and TC continued to weaken. Secondary lead was affected by environmental protection and losses and some enterprises had early holidays and maintenance. On the demand side, the battery operating rate declined, and battery production inventory accumulated monthly. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and there was an expectation of looser spot supply. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices in the short term [13]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward. On the supply side, there are differences in the expectation of Wa State's production resumption in the first quarter. Indonesia determined the quota for 2026 to be 60,000 tons. On the demand side, there are differences in the willingness to replenish inventory, and overseas consumption is generally flat. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas LME inventory increased fluctuantly. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of 2026 [15]. Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are in a shutdown state, and a large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production. The monthly supply continues to shrink. In February, supply and demand are expected to decrease simultaneously, and the overall trend is to reduce inventory. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, macro sentiment and regulatory tightening have had a large impact on prices. The price and positions of lithium carbonate continued to decline last week. On the raw material side, lithium ore prices continued to decline, and mine sales were limited. On the lithium salt side, most upstream enterprises were reluctant to sell, and downstream cathode enterprises maintained low - level procurement. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is in a de - stocking trend in the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links is further reduced to a low level, there is a large space for calendar spread arbitrage [21].