大越期货尿素早报-20260225

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level compared to the same period in history. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at historically high levels. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural reserve demand is good and is expected to increase with the start of spring plowing demand. The overall inventory continues to decline, and the destocking pattern is obvious. The external market price remains high, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports continues to widen. The urea futures main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level compared to the same period, and after the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historically high level [4]. - Demand: Industrial demand is weak, with the current operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine at low levels. Agricultural reserve demand is good, and there is still room for growth with the start of spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival [4]. - Inventory: Comprehensive inventory continues to decline, with obvious destocking [4]. - External Market: The external market price remains high, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports continues to widen [4]. - Policy: On February 12, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association issued a statement on the market speculation of the urea guidance price, calling on market participants to "not spread or believe rumors" and emphasizing that the medium - and long - term urea price should be stable [4]. Other Indicators - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is -25, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.4%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.001 million tons (-83,000 tons), which is bullish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Inventory destocking and good reserve demand [5]. - Bearish factors: Daily production at a historical high [5]. - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot delivery product | 1830 | +20 | 05 contract | 1855 | +22 | | Shandong spot | 1850 | +40 | Basis | -25 | -2 | | Henan spot | 1830 | 0 | UR01 | 1800 | +23 | | FOB China | 3237 | | UR05 | 1855 | +22 | | | | | UR09 | 1822 | +30 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse receipts | 8235 | -2147 | | UR comprehensive inventory | 1.001 million tons | -83,000 tons | | UR factory inventory | 835,000 tons | 0 | | UR port inventory | 166,000 tons | 0 | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]