大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. The geopolitical situation is disturbing oil prices, providing strong cost support, but downstream demand has not recovered yet [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive. The main risk points are significant oil price fluctuations and international policy games [6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. The escalation of the Middle East US - Iran situation has led to rising oil prices, providing cost support for polyolefins. Trump's new import tariff policy may affect product exports. Domestically, possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations before Trump's visit may increase market demand expectations. In terms of supply and demand, most agricultural film enterprises have not resumed work, packaging film enterprises are gradually resuming work at a low load, and pipe production is still restricted by weather. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6640 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is - 180, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.6%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 36.7 tons (-0), which is bullish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract disk is volatile, and it is expected to rebound at the opening. Due to geopolitical factors disturbing oil prices, cost support is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has not recovered. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4] - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and rising oil prices due to geopolitical premiums; bearish factor is weak downstream demand [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. Oil price increases support polyolefin costs. Trump's new tariff policy may affect exports. Domestically, relevant policies may increase demand expectations. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work in the plastic weaving industry is slow, while the bopp industry has a relatively fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6680 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The PP 2605 contract basis is - 66, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [7] - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 39.1 tons (-0), which is bullish [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract disk is volatile, and it is expected to rebound at the opening. Geopolitical factors disturb oil prices, providing strong cost support, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has not recovered. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7] - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and rising oil prices due to geopolitical premiums; bearish factor is weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]