原油成品油早报-20260225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Spring Festival holiday, crude oil fluctuations intensified. Affected by the news that OPEC may continue to increase production in April and the Iran-US negotiation agreement, on the 17th, Brent crude oil fell to around $66 per barrel. Subsequently, with the escalation of the Iran-US situation, the gap between the red lines of the two sides was extremely large, and a state of war between the two sides was imminent. Crude oil rose significantly, and Brent crude oil once rose to around $72 per barrel. During the holiday, the fundamental changes were neutral, the IEA monthly report was bearish, the EIA inventory data was bullish, and the OPEC supply policy was bearish. The core contradiction of oil price fluctuations still lies in the geopolitical premium. The latest report indicates that the US may launch a military strike against Iran on the 23rd or 24th of February. The geopolitical situation has a great impact on the absolute price. If a full-scale attack breaks out, the absolute price may have a large short - term pulse space. If there is no major supply interruption problem, the fundamental valuation is still at $60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to risk management [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Iranian Foreign Minister: Hopes to reach a fair agreement with the US in the shortest possible time. On the evening of the 24th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that based on the consensus reached in the previous round of negotiations, Iran will resume negotiations with the US in Geneva and is determined to reach a fair and reasonable agreement in the shortest possible time. Iran will not seek to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and the Iranian people will never give up the right to the peaceful use of nuclear technology [3] - Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran is ready to reach an agreement with the US as soon as possible. According to the Iranian Mehr News Agency on the 24th, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanchi said that Iran is ready to reach an agreement with the US as soon as possible. He will negotiate with sincerity and goodwill and hopes to get a response from the US. If all parties have political will, he believes the agreement can be reached soon. The only topic of the negotiation is the nuclear issue [4] - Sources and shipping data show that Venezuela is preparing to expand crude oil export volume from March [4] - Crea: The import volume of Russian crude oil at the Jamnagar refinery in India decreased in January. Although the total import of Russian crude oil in India increased by 4% year - on - year in January, the import volume decreased by 12%. The decrease was mainly due to the complete suspension of imports at the Jamnagar refinery [4][5] 2. Inventory - API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending February 20th was 1142.7 million barrels, with an expected value of 125 million barrels and a previous value of - 60.9 million barrels. API gasoline inventory was - 153.5 million barrels, with an expected value of - 59.1 million barrels and a previous value of - 31.2 million barrels. API refined oil inventory was - 277.1 million barrels, with an expected value of - 190 million barrels and a previous value of - 156.7 million barrels [5] - According to the EIA report, in the week of February 13th, US crude oil exports increased by 851,000 barrels per day to 4.59 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 22,000 barrels to 13.735 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 9.014 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 2.1%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.196 million barrels per day, a 4.11% increase compared to the same period last year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 229,000 barrels to 415.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.524 million barrels per day, a decrease of 281,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - The core contradiction of oil price fluctuations lies in the geopolitical premium. If a full - scale attack breaks out, the absolute price may have a large short - term pulse space. If there is no major supply interruption problem, the fundamental valuation is still at $60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to risk management [6]