大越期货沥青期货早报2026年2月25日-20260225

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 23.3701%, a 2.76 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 390,000 tons, a 10.55% decrease month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.298 million tons, a 26.02% increase month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 21.7%, a 0.11 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the building asphalt operating rate was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt operating rate was 3.7058%, a 0.91 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt operating rate was 2%, a 7 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane operating rate was 5%, a 10 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 34.57 yuan/ton, a 25.00% decrease month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 176.2071 yuan/ton, a 15.24% increase month - on - month. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [7]. - Basis: On February 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 988,000 tons, a 5.33% increase month - on - month; in - factory inventory was 616,000 tons, a 5.66% increase month - on - month; port diluted asphalt inventory was 980,000 tons, a 2.08% increase month - on - month. Social inventory, in - factory inventory, and port inventory all continued to accumulate. It is neutral [7]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20. It is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The net position of the main players is short, with short positions decreasing. It is bearish [7]. - Forecast: Refineries have recently reduced production schedules, easing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable. Crude oil prices are rising, and short - term cost support is strengthening. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,312 - 3,384 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Bullish factors: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - Bearish factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced products; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed price increases compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 0.62% to 3.25%. The registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 14,583.33% compared to the previous day, and the number of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong increased by 2.80% compared to the previous day [14]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased by 5.33% to 988,000 tons; in - factory inventory increased by 5.66% to 616,000 tons; port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 2.08% to 980,000 tons [16]. - Weekly operating rate: The operating rate of Shandong refineries decreased by 25.96% to 17.4%; the national heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate decreased by 10.55% to 23.3701% [16]. - Weekly output and loss: The sample enterprise output decreased by 10.55% to 390,000 tons; the weekly maintenance volume increased by 26.02% to 1.298 million tons [16]. - Weekly shipment volume: The national shipment volume decreased by 27.12% to 154,200 tons; the shipment volume in Shandong increased by 27.58% to 42,100 tons; the shipment volume in East China decreased by 66.48% to 24,300 tons [16]. - Asphalt coking profit: The daily asphalt profit decreased by 25.11% to 34.57 yuan/ton; the weekly delayed coking asphalt price difference increased by 115.24% to 176.2071 yuan/ton [16]. - Downstream demand operating rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate decreased by 11.43% to 21.7%; the building asphalt operating rate remained unchanged at 3.3%; the modified asphalt operating rate decreased by 19.72% to 3.71%; the road - modified asphalt operating rate decreased by 77.78% to 2%; the waterproofing membrane operating rate decreased by 66.67% to 5% [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [19][20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between different contract months [23][24]. - Asphalt and crude oil price trends: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil prices from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [26][27]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the profit situation of asphalt refining [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trends: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price trends of asphalt in different regions [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis - Asphalt profit: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the profit situation of asphalt production [39][40]. - Coking asphalt profit spread trend: The report shows the historical trends of the coking asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [42][43][44]. - Supply - side analysis - Shipment volume: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the supply situation of asphalt [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [49][50]. - Output: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production situation of asphalt [52][53]. - Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2026, which can help investors understand the impact of crude oil supply on asphalt production [56][57][58]. - Refinery asphalt output: The report presents the historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production situation of refinery asphalt [59][60]. - Operating rate: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt production capacity from 2023 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production enthusiasm of asphalt enterprises [62][63]. - Estimated maintenance loss: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss of asphalt production from 2018 to 2026, which can help investors understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [65][66]. - Inventory analysis - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory situation of asphalt in the futures market [68][69][70]. - Social inventory and in - factory inventory: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory situation of asphalt in the spot market [72][73]. - In - factory inventory inventory ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory management situation of asphalt enterprises [75][76]. - Import and export situation analysis - Asphalt export and import trends: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which can help investors understand the international trade situation of asphalt [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: The report shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price competitiveness of imported asphalt [82][83]. - Demand - side analysis - Petroleum coke output: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the relationship between petroleum coke production and asphalt demand [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which can help investors understand the overall demand situation of asphalt [86][87]. - Downstream demand - Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment trends: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which can help investors understand the impact of infrastructure investment on asphalt demand [89][90]. - New local special bond issuance trends: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bond issuance from 2019 to 2025, which can help investors understand the impact of government investment on asphalt demand [91]. - Infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year growth rate: The report presents the historical trends of the infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year growth rate from 2020 to 2024, which can help investors understand the growth situation of infrastructure investment and its impact on asphalt demand [91]. - Downstream machinery demand trends: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the monthly operating hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the demand situation of downstream machinery for asphalt [93][94][95]. - Asphalt operating rate - Heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production enthusiasm of heavy - traffic asphalt [98][99]. - Asphalt operating rate by use: The report shows the historical trends of the building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other operating rates from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production situation of asphalt for different uses [101]. - Downstream operating situation: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026, which can help investors understand the operating situation of downstream industries and their demand for asphalt [102][103][104]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which can help investors understand the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [106][107].