大越期货豆粕早报2026-02-25-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 豆粕: The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. The U.S. soybeans are fluctuating and rising, with the slow progress of soybean harvesting in Brazil and technical consolidation. In China, the soybean meal market is affected by the U.S. soybean trend and the premium of spot prices, and may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term due to mixed news. The market expects that China's continuous procurement of U.S. soybeans supports the short - term U.S. soybean market, but the completion of China's procurement volume and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas limit the upside. In China, more new - season Brazilian soybeans are being purchased, and the future arrival of imported soybeans remains at a relatively high level [9]. - 大豆: The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 4600 and 4700. The U.S. soybeans are fluctuating and rising, and in the short - term, they are in a relatively strong oscillation, awaiting further guidance on the implementation of the China - U.S. trade agreement and the weather in South American soybean - producing areas. In China, the soybean market has a narrow oscillation, with strong spot prices and short - term good demand supporting the market. However, the implementation of the China - U.S. trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans after the Spring Festival limit the upside, so beware of a pullback after a rise. The market expects that China's continuous procurement of U.S. soybeans supports the short - term U.S. soybean market, but the uncertainty of China's procurement volume and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas limit the upside. The purchase and storage of domestic soybeans and the cost - performance advantage over imported soybeans support the bottom of the market, but the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and domestic soybean production limit the upside [11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Tips - 豆粕: Oscillate in the 2780 - 2840 range. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bearish, the price on the disk is bullish, the main - force position is bearish, and the future is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - 大豆: Oscillate in the 4600 - 4700 range. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the disk is bullish, the main - force position is bullish, and the future is expected to have an oscillating pattern with a risk of a pullback [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and U.S. soybean weather. The U.S. market is oscillating above the 1000 - point level, awaiting further guidance on U.S. soybean growth and harvesting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of the China - U.S. trade negotiation. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained relatively high in January. With relatively normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, soybean meal has returned to an oscillating pattern. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The good demand for soybean meal in January supports the price expectation. The interaction between the influence of U.S. soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the oscillating pattern. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains relatively high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement affects the market. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of U.S. soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of the China - U.S. trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; there is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of U.S. soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - U.S. trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China has increased the procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in new - season domestic soybean production limits the price expectation [15]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of U.S. soybean weather and the China - U.S. trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading data: From February 6 to February 24, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3121 - 3156 yuan, and the trading volume varied from 0 - 7.93 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was around 2440 - 2450 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widened from 681 to 706 yuan [16]. - Price summary: From February 9 to February 24, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot prices showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of the main soybean futures contract (A2605) rose from 4383 to 4633 yuan, and the price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2605) fluctuated between 2729 - 2800 yuan [18]. - Warehouse receipt statistics: From February 6 to February 24, the soybean (A) warehouse receipt decreased by 210 at the beginning and then increased by 52, the soybean (B) warehouse receipt decreased from 700 to 400, and the soybean meal warehouse receipt remained at 36180 [20]. - Supply - demand balance sheets: The report provides global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, showing the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio over the years [32][33]. - Sowing and harvesting progress: It includes the sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the sowing, growing, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the United States (2024), and the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), as well as the planting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA monthly supply - demand reports: The report presents the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026, including planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main - force short positions decreased, and funds flowed in. - Soybeans: The main - force long positions increased, and funds flowed out.