有色套利早报-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on February 25, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spot price in China is 101,575, LME price is 12,973, with a ratio of 7.72; the three - month price in China is 101,810, LME price is 13,062, ratio 7.81. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.82, with a loss of 409.36; the loss for spot export is 841.74 [1] - Zinc: The spot price in China is 24,650, LME price is 3,366, ratio 7.32; the three - month price in China is 24,680, LME price is 3,398, ratio 4.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.20, with a loss of 2,960.82 [1] - Aluminum: The spot price in China is 23,390, LME price is 3,087, ratio 7.58; the three - month price in China is 23,635, LME price is 3,114, ratio 7.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.25, with a loss of 2,082.64 [1] - Nickel: The spot price in China is 136,650, LME price is 17,470, ratio 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.96, with a loss of 1,163.71 [1] - Lead: The spot price in China is 16,575, LME price is 1,913, ratio 8.64; the three - month price in China is 16,670, LME price is 1,963, ratio 12.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.47, with a profit of 319.07 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 1,640, 1,940, 2,190, and 2,230 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 601, 1,101, 1,609, and 2,117 [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 505, 560, 600, and 630 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 224, 353, 483, and 612 [4] - Aluminum: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 395, 480, 555, and 620 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 227, 355, 482, and 610 [4] - Lead: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 30, 40, 60, and 105 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 208, 312, 416, and 521 [4] - Nickel: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 3,820, 4,350, 4,840, and 4,800 respectively [4] - Tin: The spread between the 5 - 1 contracts is - 3,450, and the theoretical spread is 7,976 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1,535 and 105 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 215 and 1,014 [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 530 and - 25 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 162 and 305 [4][5] - Lead: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 55 and 85 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 158 and 269 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) are 4.13, 4.31, 6.11, 0.96, 1.42, and 0.68 respectively; in London (triple - continuous), they are 3.90, 4.26, 6.73, 0.92, 1.58, and 0.58 respectively [5]