大越期货贵金属早报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the panic sentiment cooled down, causing the gold price to rise and then fall. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, and European three major stock indexes closed with mixed results. The US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield falling 0.38 basis points to 4.031%. The US dollar index rose 0.17% to 97.90, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 6.8798. The COMEX gold futures fell 1.25% to $5160.50 per ounce. The risk - aversion sentiment cooled down, and the market reaction to the tariff storm was weak, so the gold price fluctuated [4]. - For silver, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and Trump's newly imposed tariff rate increased from 10% to 15%, causing the silver price to rise sharply again. The US three major stock indexes fluctuated and closed down, and European three major stock indexes fluctuated and closed up. The US bond yields fluctuated and closed down, with the 10 - year US bond yield falling 8.2 basis points to 4.031%. The US dollar index rose 0.72% to 97.74, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar to 6.8894. The COMEX silver futures rose 14.4% to $88 per ounce. Trump's tariff shock hit again, and the silver price rose sharply again. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded to 2000 yuan per kilogram before the festival, and it was expected to make up for a 2200 - yuan increase. The silver price was strong but with high volatility, so cautious operation was needed [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Gold: The panic sentiment cooled down, and the gold price rose and then fell. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed with mixed results, US bond yields were mixed, the US dollar index rose, and the COMEX gold futures fell 1.25% to $5160.50 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The US Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff and Trump's tariff increase led to a sharp rise in the silver price. The US three major stock indexes fell, European three major stock indexes rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the COMEX silver futures rose 14.4% to $88 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 4.02, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts was 105072 kilograms, unchanged (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 995, with the spot at a discount to the futures (bearish); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts was 353559 kilograms, an increase of 3926 kilograms (bullish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (bearish); the main net long position decreased (bullish) [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: US President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address. - 15:00: Germany's Q4 unadjusted GDP final value, Thailand's central bank will announce the interest rate decision. - 16:40: RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a fireside chat. - 18:00: Eurozone's January CPI final value, ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic will speak in the European Parliament. - 23:40: Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak. - Next day 00:00: Kansas City Fed President Schmid will talk about FOMC monetary policy and the economy. - Next day 02:20: St. Louis Fed President Musalem will talk about the Fed's role [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and continuous easing, and there is still support at the macro level. The risk points include Trump's impact, improvement in US economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [11][14]. - Silver: Positive factors include global turmoil, tense US - Iran relations, the influence of the shadow Fed, the possible determination of the new Fed chairman, rising expectations of easing, a sharp decline in the US dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff storm, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences in the Fed, the Fed's possible suspension of interest rate cuts, the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the invalidation of reciprocal tariffs [14][15]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 3.46% to 150,934 on February 24, 2026, compared with the previous day; the short - position volume decreased by 0.09% to 30,556; the net position decreased by 4.28% to 120,378 [32]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.28% to 275,101 on February 24, 2026, compared with the previous day; the short - position volume increased by 2.35% to 201,731; the net position decreased by 18.76% to 73,370 [34].