建信期货鸡蛋日报-20260225

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - For the egg 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2951, the opening price was 2956, the highest price was 3004, the lowest price was 2955, the closing price was 2973, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.75%. The trading volume was 49037, the open interest was 38927, and the open interest change was -16530 [7] - For the egg 2604 contract, the previous settlement price was 3234, the opening price was 3252, the highest price was 3280, the lowest price was 3247, the closing price was 3253, with a rise of 19 and a rise rate of 0.59%. The trading volume was 146947, the open interest was 172118, and the open interest change was 10640 [7] - For the egg 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 3458, the opening price was 3480, the highest price was 3480, the lowest price was 3420, the closing price was 3429, with a fall of 29 and a fall rate of -0.84%. The trading volume was 50816, the open interest was 110648, and the open interest change was 4192 [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.57 yuan/jin from before the holiday; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, down 0.44 yuan/jin from before the holiday. The 04 contract rose 0.59% [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short - term, the near - month contracts are treated as range - bound. The basis of the 03 and 04 contracts is at a medium level in the same period of previous years, and the sharp decline before the Spring Festival has already factored in the bearish expectations, but the rise of futures needs the support of spot performance [8] - For the far - month contracts, pay attention to the situation of replenishment and culling. It is expected that the culling will still be repeated. Do not be overly optimistic about the off - season contracts in the first half of the year. For the 06 contract during the rainy season, it is advisable to be bearish on rallies. The peak - season contracts in the second half of the year can be treated relatively optimistically due to the unfalsifiable expectation of inventory reduction [8] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.344 billion, down 0.59% month - on - month, having declined slightly for two consecutive months. Compared with 1.28 billion in the same period of last year, the year - on - year increase was still 5.00% [9] Replenishment - In December 2025, the monthly output of day - old chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as 39.55 million in November, but significantly less than 45.98 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment volume in the recent 4 months (from September to December 2025) was about 157.49 million, compared with about 182.14 million in the same period of last year, indicating that the medium - term production capacity pressure may continue to ease [9] Group 4: Data Overview Culling Volume - As of January 29, in the previous three weeks, the national culling volumes of laying hens were 16.03 million, 16.27 million, and 17.33 million respectively, maintaining a relatively high level but showing a slight decline [18] Culling Age - As of January 29, the average culling age of laying hens was 493 days, 3 days later than last week and 9 days later than last month [18]