建信期货集运指数日报-20260225

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EC futures continued their pre - Spring Festival strength and rose across the board, mainly due to the spill - over effect of the US - Iran conflict boosting oil freight prices. However, from the supply - demand fundamentals, it is still the off - season after the Spring Festival. After the IEEPA tariff was ruled invalid, Trump announced a 10% tariff and a further increase to 15% under Trade Law 122, but according to the Kuala Lumpur Consensus, the tariffs China faces may still decline. So, it's difficult to trigger exporters' rush shipments in the short term. The demand for photovoltaic rush exports is limited, and the shipping capacity supply in March is at a high level in the same period of history. The resumption of navigation in the Red Sea will further increase the shipping capacity supply pressure. Although leading shipping companies announced price increases in early February, the current price increase in the off - season may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. Currently, with strong sentiment, low index levels, and European port congestion, it may continue to show a relatively strong performance in the short term. Wait for opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts of 04 and 06 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Market Review: EC futures continued their pre - Spring Festival strength and rose across the board, affected by the US - Iran conflict's impact on oil freight prices. But the off - season fundamentals, tariff policies, limited export demand, high shipping capacity supply, and the Red Sea resumption all affect the market [7]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait for opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts of 04 and 06 [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - The US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by the US government under the IEEPA are illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the impact and urges the US to cancel the tariffs. The US CBP will stop collecting IEEPA - based tariffs from February 24. The European Parliament's negotiation team suspended the approval work of the EU - US trade agreement and postponed the vote [8]. - Trump warned that countries using the Supreme Court ruling to "play tricks" will face higher tariffs. He also said reports of a possible war with Iran are false [9]. - Israeli officials announced measures to strengthen control over the West Bank, which was strongly condemned by 19 countries and relevant organizations [9]. - The Gemini Alliance announced the resumption of the ME11/IMX route through the Red Sea - Suez Canal in February 2026. Maersk reported that bad weather affected ports and shipping routes in Western and South - Western Europe [9]. 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route decreased from 1607.27 on February 16 to 1573.51 on February 23, a decrease of 2.1%. The index for the US - West route decreased from 1131.74 to 1112.01, a decrease of 1.7% [11]. 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - The trading data of EC2604 - EC2612 contracts on February 24 are provided, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - Multiple charts show shipping - related data, including European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][18]