建信期货铁矿石日评-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply in the first quarter is relatively tight, while the demand side is expected to see an acceleration in steel mill复产 after the Spring Festival. It is predicted that the iron ore price will show a trend of being weak first and then strong. The high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price. One can consider deploying buy - hedging or investment strategies at the lower edge of the oscillation range [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - Market Review: On February 24, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures oscillated downward, opened lower, oscillated and declined, then rebounded and rose, and weakened again in the afternoon, closing at 740.5 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [7]. - Spot Market and Technical Analysis: On February 24, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 1.3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a trend of a golden cross; the green column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract has been expanding for 2 consecutive trading days [9]. - Outlook for the Future: In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil significantly declined before the Spring Festival holiday, mainly affected by the holiday. Considering the influence of weather and holiday factors in the first quarter, it is expected that the subsequent shipment volume will remain at a relatively low level. The recent arrival volume has been continuously declining, also affected by the holiday, and it is estimated that the subsequent arrival volume will show a trend of being low first and then high. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output before the Spring Festival slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons, and the demand resilience remained in a good state. Although February is still in the off - season of demand, the current profit performance is not bad, and the profit per ton of steel in the blast furnaces of rebar and hot - rolled coils is in the positive range. Driven by profit, the resumption of production of steel mills after the festival is expected to accelerate, and the iron ore demand is expected to be weak first and then strong. In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks relatively fully before the festival, with the available inventory days reaching a maximum of 31 days, and it is expected to gradually decline. The port inventory has been continuously accumulating. Due to the stock replenishment of steel mills and the decline in arrivals in the week before the festival, the port inventory decreased, and it is expected to remain at a high level and may further break through [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - The Trump administration is considering imposing new "national security tariffs" on six industries, including large - scale batteries, pig iron and iron accessories, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment. These tariffs will be levied according to Article 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, and will be implemented separately from the new global 15% tariff. It is not clear when the tariff investigations by the Department of Commerce will be announced and when the tariffs will be finally imposed [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between the iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the May contract, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available inventory days of iron ore in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and the capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption volume of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][21]