建信期货豆粕日报-20260225

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market will be in a range - bound oscillation without a trending market in the near future, and the domestic market may face greater phased pressure than the overseas market [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: The overseas soybean futures contracts were strong first and then weak during the holiday, with the main contract close to 1150 cents. The domestic market was mainly oscillating after the holiday. The soybean meal did not perform well due to the oil - meal seesaw effect [6] - Factors Affecting the Market: Overseas, the change in tariffs led to the game of subsequent export demand expectations. The large - scale harvest of Brazilian soybeans may make China's commercial purchases still tend to South America. In South America, the rainfall in Argentina's main producing areas alleviated the growth pressure of crops, and the soybean yield is expected to be stable. Domestically, attention should be paid to the auction of imported soybeans and Sino - US trade procurement news [6] 3.2 Industry News - USDA Outlook: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. The soybean output will reach 4.45 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels. Ending stocks will remain basically flat at 355 million bushels. The cost of production is expected to remain high, squeezing planting profit margins [7] - Other News: Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, which is the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since last October. As of the week of February 18, 75% of Argentina's soybean crops were rated normal to good, and 66% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions [15] 3.3 Data Overview - The data includes the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [13][14][17]