大越期货生猪期货早报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic southern pigs for secondary fattening has ended, leading to a short - term decrease in slaughter and supporting pig prices. Meanwhile, the demand for cured meat and sausages has also ended, resulting in a decrease in both pig and meat supply. The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, but pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and overall future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may see a decrease in supply and a weakening demand expectation, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. The report also suggests paying attention to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms at the end of the month and the dynamic changes at the bottom of the futures market when the spot price runs weakly in the short term after the release of the secondary fattening market. The expected price range for the LH2605 contract of live pigs is between 11,100 and 11,500 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased recently. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and rebound this week, maintaining an overall range - bound pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,100 - 11,500 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live - pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak demand season. With the end of secondary fattening in the south, the supply of live pigs is expected to decrease. The spot price is in a short - term weak state and will maintain a medium - term range - bound pattern. After the peak demand season, the live - pig spot market enters a stage of reduced supply and weak demand. The room for further price decline in the short term may be limited, and prices may bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern. The loss of domestic live - pig breeding profit has fluctuated slightly recently, remaining in a short - term slight loss. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short term, and the weak supply - demand situation suppresses the short - term expectations of live - pig futures and spot prices. The live - pig spot price is weak in the short term, and the futures price may fluctuate and decline in the short term, bottom out and rebound in the medium term, or maintain a range - bound pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic live - pig supply is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to a historical low range [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic live - pig demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic live - pig inventory is lower than expected [13]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - side data: As of December 31, the live - pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. As of March 31, the live - pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [10][28]. - Price data: The national average spot price is 10,920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2605 contract is - 345 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [10]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is increasing [10].