建信期货国债日报-20260225

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher due to uncertainties in tariffs during the holiday, the flat LPR quote in line with expectations, and the lack of significant loosening of funds. The bond market may experience weak and volatile trends. [8][12] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher due to tariff uncertainties, flat LPR quotes, and tight funds. [8] Interest Rate Bonds - Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds fluctuated slightly within 1bp, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rising 0.55bp to 1.783% at 16:30. [9] Money Market - The inter - bank money market was in a tight balance during the tax period. The net reverse repurchase in the open - market was 92.64 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index rose slightly, the overnight DR rate rose 5.5bp to 1.3674%, the 7 - day fund rate rose 23.34bp to around 1.55%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped slightly to 1.56%. [10] Conclusion - Short - term impact on China is limited after Trump's new tariff plan considering the cancelled IEEPA tariffs, and there is no need for urgent monetary policy adjustment. After the Spring Festival, institutions may have profit - taking needs, and the supply pressure of government bonds will increase. The bond market may be weak and volatile as the market may focus on holiday economic data and policies in March, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts is not strong. [11][12] Group 4: Industry News - The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by the US government under the IEEPA are illegal. The US CBP will stop collecting IEEPA - based tariffs from February 24. The European Parliament postponed the vote on the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned countries against using the ruling to "play tricks". [13] - Trump said reports of possible war with Iran were false. Fed Governor Waller said a strong February employment data may lead to a pause in interest - rate hikes. [14] - Xi Jinping's important article in the 4th issue of Qiushi Magazine emphasizes key economic tasks in 2026, including promoting domestic demand, boosting consumption, and stabilizing investment. [15] Group 5: Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures - Data on trading of Treasury bond futures contracts on February 24, including prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] Money Market - Charts showing changes in inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure and trends. [28][33] Derivatives Market - Charts of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves. [38]