瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the HC2605 contract first declined and then rebounded. The US has officially imposed a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing a formal order to raise the tariff rate to 15%. The US government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security". Fundamentally, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased steadily, and the capacity utilization rate was raised to 79.14%. Due to the shrinking demand in the off-season, the inventory accumulation was obvious. The subsequent resumption of work at the terminal was orderly, but the release of demand might be delayed. Overall, tariff disturbances still affected market sentiment, but as commodities generally rose, the rebound of furnace materials drove up steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded at a low level, and the green column turned red. It is recommended for short-term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,236 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the position volume was 1,501,203 lots, up 323 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 63,184 lots, down 1,870 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread was -11 yuan/ton; the HC previous - period warehouse receipt was 349,905 tons, up 13,825 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou it was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it was 3,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 24 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 745 yuan/wet ton, down 6 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 169.4233 million tons, down 1.9464 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 553,800 tons, up 116,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.8858 million tons, down 94,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.7422 million tons, up 181,300 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.15%, up 0.60%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.43%, up 0.72%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0981 million tons, up 20,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 79.14%, up 0.52%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 933,800 tons, up 135,300 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.4047 million tons, up 495,500 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.4499 million vehicles, down 846,100 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 2.3465 million vehicles, down 925,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On February 23, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 3.0981 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons; the factory inventory was 933,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 135,300 tons; the social inventory was 3.4047 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 495,500 tons; the total inventory was 4.3385 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 630,800 tons; the apparent demand was 2.4673 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 494,600 tons. Regarding whether US President Trump will visit China at the end of March or early April, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that China and the US are maintaining communication on President Trump's visit to China, and there is currently no information available on specific issues [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - Weekly output, in - plant inventory and social inventory of hot - rolled coils [2]