建信期货国债日报-20260226

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 26, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - Due to profit - taking pressure, tight capital market, and a strong stock market, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest rates on current treasury bonds all increased, with an increase of less than 2bp. The inter - bank capital market was in a tight balance. Considering the cancelled IEEPA tariffs, the short - term impact on China was limited, and there was no need for urgent monetary policy tightening. After the Spring Festival, institutions holding bonds may have profit - taking needs, and the supply pressure of government bonds will rise. The bond market may fluctuate weakly [8][9][11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board under the pressure of profit - taking, tight capital market, and a strong stock market. The yields of major inter - bank interest rates on current treasury bonds all increased, with an increase of less than 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250022 was reported at 1.8040%, up 1.4bp [8][9] - Capital Market: Facing the dual disturbances of tax payment and month - end, the inter - bank capital market was in a tight balance. The net investment in reverse repurchase in the open market was 159.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market rose 1.66bp to 1.384%, the 7 - day capital interest rate fell 4.79bp to around 1.51%, the medium - and long - term capital was stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [10] - Conclusion: The short - term impact on China was limited, and there was no need for urgent monetary policy tightening. After the Spring Festival, institutions may have profit - taking needs, the supply pressure of government bonds will rise, and the cash return will supplement liquidity. However, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawals after the Spring Festival, which may be unfavorable to short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on the holiday economic data, important meetings, and policies in March, but the current expectation of interest rate cuts is still not strong, and the bond market may fluctuate weakly [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - US News: US President Trump delivered his first State of the Union address in his second term. He said that gasoline prices in most US states were below $2.30 per gallon, mortgage rates were at a four - year low, inflation had been reduced to a five - year low (core inflation rate dropped to 1.7% in the last three months of 2025), the US had received investment commitments of $18 trillion, and had received more than 80 million barrels of Venezuelan oil [13] - Shanghai Real Estate Policy: Shanghai optimized its post - holiday real estate control policy, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund loan policies, and improving personal housing property tax policies. For example, the social security or tax - payment period for non - local residents to buy houses in the inner - ring area of Shanghai was shortened to 1 year, the maximum amount of the first - home provident fund loan was raised from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, and could be further increased to 3.24 million yuan for some special groups.沪籍 families could be exempted from property tax for their newly - purchased sole housing [14] - Diplomatic News: In response to the US's accusation of China's nuclear explosion test and the UK's inclusion of Chinese entities in the sanctions list against Russia, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs firmly refuted the accusations and expressed strong dissatisfaction, and stated that China would take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [14][15] 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report presented data on treasury bond futures trading on February 25, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. It also mentioned the analysis of the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6] - Money Market: The report provided data on the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the interest rate of inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase, the term structure and trend of SHIBOR [28][33] - Derivatives Market: The report presented data on the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [38]