大越期货尿素早报-20260226

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a urea morning report dated February 26, 2026, prepared by Zhu Tianyi from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural reserve demand is good and is expected to rise with the start of spring plowing. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The outer - market price remains high, and the export price difference continues to widen. The report expects the urea main contract to fluctuate today [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historical high [4] - Demand: Industrial demand is weak, with the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine at low levels. Agricultural reserve demand is good and is expected to rise with the start of spring plowing [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.6 million tons (+19.6) [4][6] - Price: The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (+0), and the outer - market price remains high, with the export price difference continuing to widen [4] Other Indicators - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 8, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.4%, neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract is increasing, bearish [4] Factors Affecting Urea - Bullish factors: Inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand [5] - Bearish factors: Daily production at a historical high [5] - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1830 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1838 | - 17 | | Shandong Spot | 1860 | 10 | Basis | - 8 | 17 | | Henan Spot | 1830 | 0 | UR01 | 1793 | - 7 | | FOB China | 3225 | | UR05 | 1838 | - 17 | | | | | UR09 | 1809 | - 13 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipts | 8098 | - 137 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 119.6 million tons | 0 | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 103.0 million tons | 0 | | UR Port Inventory | 16.6 million tons | 0 | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]