建信期货生猪日报-20260226

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily report on the hog industry dated February 26, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures: On the 25th, the main hog contract 2605 opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 11,515 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,265 yuan/ton, and it closed at 11,465 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,901 lots to 30,965 lots [9] - Spot: On the 25th, the average price of ternary hogs nationwide was 10.77 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [9] - Supply: In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 17.73% month-on-month. Affected by the reduction in sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month-on-month. Before the holiday, the slaughter enthusiasm of the breeding end increased, and the rhythm was fast. The slaughter volume including secondary fattening was released to a large extent. Currently, the overall supply level is still loose, and there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices in some areas [10] - Demand: After the festival, the price fell to a low level and the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened, and the number of secondary fattening entrants increased. After the festival, terminal consumption and slaughter decreased significantly, and trading was light. Currently, consumption is slowly recovering, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On February 25th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 105,000 heads, an increase of 11,000 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 140,000 heads from before the festival, and a month-on-month decrease of 83,000 heads [10] - Overall: In the spot market, after the festival, demand is light and recovering slowly, and supply and demand are still relatively loose. Spot prices are mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, production capacity is sufficient, hog supply is expected to maintain a slight increase, and after the festival, it enters the off-season of consumption, with weak support for the market. Contracts 03/05 are mainly fluctuating weakly, but attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [10] Group 3: Industry News - As of February 5th, the expected cost of self-breeding and self-raising was 12.08 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.65 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg [11][12] Group 4: Data Overview - As of February 5th, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising was 37 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 9 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was -24.2 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 10.3 yuan/head [15] - In the week of February 5th, the average market sales price of 6.5 kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [15] - In the week of February 5th, the average slaughter weight of hogs nationwide was 127.40 kg, a decrease of 0.46 kg from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 0.36%, a decrease of 1.14 kg from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89%, and an increase of 3.22 kg from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.59% [15] - In the week of February 5th, the price difference between 175 kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.93 yuan/jin, a week-on-week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [15] - The cost of purchasing 110 kg and fattening to 140 kg this week was 11.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 kg and fattening to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]