建信期货鸡蛋日报-20260226

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: February 26, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Contract 2603: Previous settlement price was 2984, opening price was 2973, highest price was 2989, lowest price was 2969, closing price was 2971, down 13 points or -0.44%, with a trading volume of 24425 and an open interest of 32054, a decrease of 6873 [7] - Contract 2604: Previous settlement price was 3260, opening price was 3255, highest price was 3276, lowest price was 3244, closing price was 3268, up 8 points or 0.25%, with a trading volume of 132866 and an open interest of 176402, an increase of 4284 [7] - Contract 2605: Previous settlement price was 3450, opening price was 3430, highest price was 3458, lowest price was 3423, closing price was 3443, down 7 points or -0.20%, with a trading volume of 73046 and an open interest of 122657, an increase of 12009 [7] Operational Suggestions - The national egg price stabilized today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 04 contract rose 0.25% [8] - During the holiday, the egg price showed a seasonal decline. After the market opened, the prices in the production areas basically fell below 3 yuan, mostly around 2.75 - 2.8 yuan, and the lowest price in Hebei was around 2.56 yuan. However, the futures market performed relatively well after the holiday. In previous years, there was usually a period of weak adjustment in the spot market after the eighth day of the first lunar month, but this year, the prices in most areas have stabilized. One reason is that the price dropped significantly before the Spring Festival, providing some support after the festival. The other reason is that the absolute price of eggs after the festival is relatively low, leaving little room for further significant decline [8] - In the future, attention should be paid to whether the egg price will stabilize. The basis of the 03 and 04 contracts is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years. The significant decline before the Spring Festival has already factored in the bearish expectations, but the rise of the futures price still depends on the performance of the spot market. For now, the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range [8] - The far - term contracts were weak today. Future attention should be paid to the situation of chick replenishment and hen culling. It is expected that the culling process will be反复. In the first half of the year, there is no need to be overly optimistic about the off - season contracts. Especially for the 06 contract during the rainy season, it is advisable to take a short - selling approach on rallies. For the peak - season contracts in the second half of the year, due to the difficult - to - disprove expectation of inventory reduction, they can be viewed more optimistically [8] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.344 billion, down 0.59% month - on - month, having declined slightly for two consecutive months. However, compared with the same period last year (1.28 billion), the year - on - year increase was still 5.00% [9] Chick Replenishment - In December 2025, the monthly output of day - old chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as that in November (39.55 million), but significantly less than the 45.98 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment volume in the past four months (September - December 2025) was about 157.49 million, compared with about 182.14 million in the same period last year, indicating that the medium - term production capacity pressure may continue to ease [9] Group 4: Data Overview Culling Volume - Recently, the culling volume has remained relatively high but has slightly declined. As of January 29, the culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 16.03 million, 16.27 million, and 17.33 million respectively [18] Culling Age - Recently, the culling age has been postponed. As of January 29, the average culling age was 493 days, 3 days later than last week and 9 days later than last month [18]