建信期货油脂日报-20260226

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: February 26, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the oil and fat sector [8] 3. Core Viewpoints - The three major oils and fats showed divergent trends, with palm oil being the weakest and used as a short - position in arbitrage [8] - The RVO final decision in early March is crucial for the oil and fat market, and the market is closely watching the final policy implementation [8] - Due to the resurgence of rumors about the clearance of imported soybeans in China, the relatively slow soybean harvest in Brazil, and the downward adjustment of Brazil's export forecast for February by institutions, the soybean oil futures continued to rise, and the spot price increased following the market, while the basis quotation declined steadily [8] - The high - frequency data of Malaysia's palm oil production and exports in February indicate a significant reduction in inventory in February. The fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil continue to improve, but it faces seasonal production increases in March. Without strong demand, the price is likely to fluctuate within a range [8] - ICE rapeseed followed the rise of CBOT soybeans, driving up the cost of imported rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed oil spot basis remains strong, providing strong support for near - month contracts, and the subsequent trend depends on the substantial increase in the oil mill's operating rate [8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil quotes: From May to June, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 300, and first - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 500. The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: First - grade soybean oil, spot price is Y05 + 380, fixed - price is 8510 yuan/ton; far - month prices vary by period. The price of third - grade soybean oil is 05 + 360, and degummed soybean oil is 05 + 250. The palm oil quotes of Guangzhou traders are stable: Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil is 05 + 50 in March [7] 4.2 Industry News - From February 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 12.29% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 10.74% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 15.23% month - on - month, Sarawak decreased by 11.20% month - on - month, and East Malaysia decreased by 14.19% month - on - month [10] - In the third week of February 2026, Brazil's soybean export pace was lower than the same period last year. From February 1 - 20, Brazil's soybean export volume was 4.085 million tons, compared with 6.428 million tons in February last year. The average daily export volume so far in February was 314,205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. The average export price of soybeans so far in February was $417.1 per ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [10] 4.3 Data Overview - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean export volume in February 2026 is 10.69 million tons, about 0.8 million tons lower than the previous week's estimate, but still 9.9% higher than 9.726 million tons in February last year. It is expected that Brazil's soybean export volume in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [17] - As of February 20, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.75% of the planted area, higher than 51.01% a week ago, slightly lower than 66.16% in the same period last year, but still higher than the five - year average progress of 57.25%. It is predicted that the soybean production in this state in the 2025/26 season will be 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high production of the previous year [17]