大越期货贵金属早报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are volatile. The rebound of US tech stocks and CME's technical glitches have led to a retracement in the increase of gold prices. The tail - end impact of the tariff storm continues to push up gold prices, and the safe - haven sentiment still has an upward push, but the reaction is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 1.9 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver prices also fluctuate. The rebound of US tech stocks and CME's technical glitches have caused silver prices to rise and then fall. The safe - haven sentiment has cooled down, but the tariff storm still has an impact, and silver prices are affected by the rebound of tech stocks [5]. - For both gold and silver, the approaching mid - term elections, continuous turmoil, and ongoing easing provide macro - level support [9][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1前日回顾 - Gold: US stock tech stocks rebounded, CME had a technical glitch, and gold prices fluctuated. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased (10 - year yield rose 2.10 basis points to 4.052%), the US dollar index fell 0.24% to 97.66, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.14% to $5183.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: US stock tech stocks rebounded, CME had a technical glitch, and silver prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index fell, and the offshore RMB appreciated. COMEX silver futures rose 1.95% to $89.21 per ounce [5]. 3.2每日提示 - Gold: The basis is - 3.36, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts is 105,072 kilograms and remains unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 222, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts is 355,830 kilograms, an increase of 5,951 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases, which is bullish [5]. 3.3今日关注 - Time TBD: The Bank of Korea releases an interest rate decision statement, and the Bank of Japan's Financial Markets Bureau holds a "market operation meeting" - 09:30: Bank of Japan审议委员高田创 gives a speech - 15:00: China's Ministry of Commerce holds the 3rd regular press conference in February - 16:30: ECB President Lagarde speaks in the European Parliament - 17:00: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speak, and ECB Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc talks about stablecoins - 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21, Canada's current account in the fourth quarter - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee on (financial) regulation [14] 3.4基本面数据 - Gold: The approaching mid - term elections, continuous turmoil, and ongoing easing provide macro - level support. The tail - end impact of Trump's tariff storm continues to push up gold prices, and the safe - haven sentiment still has an upward push, but the reaction is limited [4][9]. - Silver: Global turmoil, the tense situation between the US and Iran, the significant "shadow Fed", the possible determination of the new Fed chairman, the expectation of easing, the sharp decline of the US dollar, and Trump's tariff storm all support silver prices. However, the marginal impact of Trump's "last - minute escape" strategy fades, there are large internal differences in the Fed, and the Fed may start to suspend interest rate cuts. The optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the invalidation of reciprocal tariffs are negative factors [12][13]. 3.5持仓数据 - Gold: On February 25, 2026, the long position volume was 158,755, an increase of 7,821 (5.18%) compared with February 24. The short position volume was 30,998, an increase of 442 (1.45%). The net position was 127,757, an increase of 7,379 (6.13%) [36]. - Silver: On February 25, 2026, the long position volume was 276,304, an increase of 1,203 (0.44%) compared with February 24. The short position volume was 200,044, a decrease of 1,687 (- 0.84%). The net position was 76,260, an increase of 2,890 (3.94%) [38].