大越期货玻璃早报-20260226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is facing a bearish situation. With a slight recovery in glass production profit, the cold repair is less than expected, resulting in a low supply. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period. The glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 1050 yuan/ton to 1064 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.33%. The spot price of Shahe safety large - plate remained at 944 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 106 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton, a change of 13.21% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The glass production profit has slightly recovered, but the cold repair is less than expected, leading to a low supply [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 211, with an operating rate of 71.86%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass is 149,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4][24]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 55.352 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.31% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40].