大越期货棉花早报-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to result in a reduction of over 10%. The USDA February report shows that for the 25/26 cotton season, the global production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. The rural department's February forecast for the 25/26 season in China indicates a production of 664 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 760 million tons, and an ending inventory of 829 million tons. The overall situation is considered bullish. The basis is positive, with the spot price of 3128b cotton having a basis of 949 (for the 05 contract) against the futures price, indicating a premium over the futures. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it, also suggesting a bullish trend. The main positions are bullish, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear. The US cotton has rebounded from the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton has reached a new short - term high after the Spring Festival. With the reduction of US tariffs and the improvement of Sino - US relations, textile exports are expected to benefit. However, due to the rapid short - term rise of cotton prices, investors with existing long positions are advised to take profits and reduce positions, and maintain a cautious and bullish trading strategy [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors include the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area with an expected reduction of over 10%, pre - holiday downstream restocking, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, and the improvement of Sino - US relations [5]. - Bearish factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand: According to the USDA's February report on global cotton supply and demand, the total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. China's production is expected to be 762 million tons, consumption is 849.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 791.7 million tons. Other major cotton - producing countries such as India, the US, and Brazil also have corresponding production, consumption, and inventory data [9][10]. - China's Supply and Demand: The rural department's February forecast for the 25/26 season in China shows a production of 664 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 760 million tons, and an ending inventory of 829 million tons. In December, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. Cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and棉纱 imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [4]. 5. Position Data - The main positions in the cotton market are bullish, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].