大越期货油脂早报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and consolidating, with a generally neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supplies. The Sino - US relationship affects the price of US soybeans, and the palm oil market has some positive changes in demand. The expected price ranges for different oils are: soybean oil Y2605 at 8000 - 8400, palm oil P2605 at 8600 - 9000, and rapeseed oil OI2605 at 9000 - 9400 [2][3][4] - The current main logic of the oil and fat market revolves around the relatively loose global fundamental situation of oils and fats, with some short - term positive factors such as the tight supply of US soybeans and the approaching palm oil production reduction season, and negative factors including high historical oil and fat prices, continuous inventory accumulation, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils and fats [5] 3. Summary of Each Directory 3.1 Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report for December shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, but the current export data for January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the subsequent production reduction season will reduce the supply pressure [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8470, with a basis of 242, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 0.06 million tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2] - Market Trend: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] 3.2 Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report for December shows slightly bearish data, but the January export data is positive, and the subsequent production reduction season will ease the supply pressure [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8830, with a basis of - 18, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 0.736 million tons, an increase of 0.0022 million tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3] - Market Trend: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of palm oil's main contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] 3.3 Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report for December shows slightly bearish data, but the January export data is positive, and the subsequent production reduction season will ease the supply pressure [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, with a basis of 676, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 0.025 million tons, a decrease of 0.002 million tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4] - Market Trend: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of rapeseed oil's main contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 3.4 Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - Negative Factors: The historical prices of oils and fats are relatively high, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamental situation of oils and fats is relatively loose [5]