大越期货甲醇早报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market currently lacks a clear driving force. The inland market is constrained by a loose supply - demand pattern, with limited upward price momentum. The coastal market is supported by reduced imports and shows relatively firm prices. Overall, the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is predicted that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2605 trading in the range of 2240 - 2300 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Domestic methanol plant operation remains at a relatively high level, while Iranian methanol plant operation is low, leading to an expected contraction in imports. Coastal supply pressure is limited, but inland supply is abundant. Downstream seasonal demand is weak, and post - holiday terminal demand is difficult to recover quickly, with overall rigid demand being weak. Inventory is a key factor affecting the market. Inland enterprises have transferred some inventory pressure through pre - sales before the holiday, but downstream digestion is slow, and post - holiday procurement demand is still weak. Coastal inventory is slowly decreasing but remains at a relatively high level [5]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2255 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 6, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China was 94.27 tons, a slight decrease of 1.87 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 0.31 tons to 46.08 tons [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2605 trading between 2240 - 2300 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some plants have shut down or reduced production, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin. Iranian methanol operation is at a low level, and methanol imports are expected to continue to contract in February. Some methanol plants in the production areas have actively reduced inventories and currently have low inventories, with some enterprises even limiting sales. Some downstream users continue to stock up before the holiday [6]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic methanol operation remains at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde gradually shut down for holidays, weakening raw material demand. The main olefin plants at ports have shut down, significantly weakening local demand. Most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, resulting in a temporary decrease in demand [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region increased by 3 yuan/ton to 685 yuan/ton. The CFR price in the Chinese main port remained unchanged at 269 US dollars/ton, and the import cost decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 2310 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2249 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 65 to 9929, and the effective forecast remained at 0 [8]. - Spread Structure: The basis increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The import spread increased by 33 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and other regions showed different degrees of change [8]. - Operation Rate: The weighted average national operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest China all decreased [8]. - Inventory Situation: The inventory in the East China port decreased by 0.33 tons to 56.03 tons, and the inventory in the South China port decreased by 1.54 tons to 38.24 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others in different regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast China, with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding production losses [59]. - Foreign Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, while plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have specific maintenance or production - reducing situations [60]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have production - related issues. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance, while some other plants are operating stably or at a certain load [61].