建信期货铁矿石日评-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to show a trend of being weak first and then strong. The high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price. It is advisable to consider deploying buy - hedging or investment strategies at the lower edge of the oscillation range [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On February 25, 2026, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upward, rising 1.42% to close at 752.5 yuan/ton. The contract opened higher, fluctuated upward, and weakened in the afternoon [7]. - The prices of major iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 - 13 yuan/ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a golden cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator began to narrow [9]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival holiday, the shipments from Australia and Brazil dropped significantly and rebounded after the holiday. Affected by weather in the first quarter, the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain at a moderately low level. The recent arrival volume has been declining, but it is expected to recover, showing a trend of being low first and then high [10]. - Demand side: Before the Spring Festival, the daily average pig iron output recovered slightly to over 2.3 million tons. Although February is the off - season for demand, the profit performance is good, and the profit of blast - furnace steelmaking of rebar and hot - rolled coil is in the positive range. However, some steel mills in Tangshan have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions, and the resumption of production is expected to be postponed [10][11]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Steel mills replenished their inventories sufficiently before the festival, with the available days of inventory reaching a maximum of 31 days, and it is expected to decline gradually. Port inventory has been accumulating, and although it decreased in the week before the festival due to steel mill replenishment and the decline in arrivals, it is expected to remain at a high level and may break through further [11]. 3.4 Industry News - The Trump administration is considering imposing new "national security tariffs" on six industries, including large - scale batteries, pig iron and iron accessories, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment. These tariffs will be imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, separately from the new global 15% tariff. It is unclear when the tariff investigations will be announced and when the tariffs will be levied [12]. 3.5 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices and spreads of iron ore at Qingdao Port, shipment and arrival volumes, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and production and consumption data of steel products [14][21][25].