集运早报-20260226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the 04 contract is relatively high. The futures market is in a short - term high - level oscillation under the influence of potential peak - season cargo rush in March to ease the decline slope of freight rates from March to April, geopolitical tensions, and macro - economic sentiment. However, the spot market is under great pressure, and the cargo rush has no actual impact. The decline in spot prices leads the futures market to start falling [3]. - For far - month contracts, it is difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts. Shipping companies have a large operation space for price adjustment, and the open interest is not high. It is recommended to operate with caution. The valuation of the 10 contract is relatively high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The overall strategy is to short the 09 contract and long the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the node of off - season to peak - season transition, and it is difficult to take a unilateral position. It is recommended to wait for the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1278.6, with a decline of 3.18%, a basis of 294.9, a trading volume of 33480, an open interest of 35322, and an open interest change of 850 [2]. - EC2605: Closing price 1435.0, decline 2.97%, basis 138.5, trading volume 274, open interest 351, open interest change 41 [2]. - EC2606: Closing price 1659.0, decline 1.93%, basis - 85.5, trading volume 6533, open interest 16362 [2]. - EC2607: Closing price 1828.9, decline 1.35%, basis - 255.4, open interest 207, open interest change 8 [2]. - EC2608: Closing price 1730.3, decline 0.66%, basis - 156.8, trading volume 483, open interest 1337, open interest change 0 [2]. - EC2609: Closing price 1322.0, increase 0.53%, basis 251.5, trading volume 14, open interest 140, open interest change 0 [2]. - EC2610: Closing price 1158.2, decline 0.91%, basis 415.3, trading volume 3244, open interest 9901, open interest change 1175 [2]. - EC2612: Closing price 1444.5, decline 1.66%, basis 129.0, trading volume 28, open interest 131 [2]. - Month - spread: EC2604 - 2606 was - 380.4 (compared with - 371.0 the previous day and - 307.2 three days ago, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 80.6); EC2604 - 2605 was - 156.4 (compared with - 158.4 the previous day and - 45.1 three days ago, a month - on - month increase of 2.0 and a week - on - week decrease of 94.0); EC2606 - 2610 was 500.8 (compared with 522.8 the previous day and 435.0 three days ago, a month - on - month decrease of 22.0 and a week - on - week increase of 88.8) [2]. Spot Market Information - Week 7 - 9: MSK opened at 1950 (a month - on - month decrease of 100), PA was around 2000, MSC was 2140, OA was 2300 US dollars. The central price was 2130 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market [4]. - In March, price increase announcements: Last week, MSC was the first to issue a price - increase letter, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL. The announced price increase for the European line was to 3000 - 3100 US dollars [4]. - Week 10: MSK opened at 1950 US dollars; MSC decreased to 2140, the same as at the end of February. OOCL's online price decreased to 2380 (a month - on - month increase of 100) [4]. - Week 11: MSK opened at 1850 US dollars (a month - on - month decrease of 100) [4]. Relevant News - On February 26, Vance said that the US "has hope" for the new round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran but does not rule out the use of force [4]. - On February 26, a US envoy demanded that the Iran nuclear deal be made permanent [4]. - On February 26, US Secretary of State Rubio said that Iran's insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles is a "very, very serious problem" [4]. - On February 26, US media reported that US officials envisioned that Israel would fight Iran first, and then the US would intervene after Iran's counter - attack. According to Politico, two informed sources revealed that Trump's senior advisors prefer Israel to fight before the US attacks Iran. The most likely scenario is still a joint US - Israel operation [5].