LPG早报-20260226

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The 04 contract is priced based on the external market, with a reasonable valuation, and the 4 - 5 month spread valuation is neutral. The external market remains tight in the short - term but is expected to weaken in the second quarter, and geopolitics is a key factor that requires continuous attention. After the holiday, downstream replenishment may occur, chemical demand is supported, and there is room for a rebound in spot prices [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Quotes - On February 25th, the main contract PG2604 closed up at 4510 (-78) during the day session, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 66 (-13). At night, it rose significantly due to Saudi news, with the 04 contract closing up at 4588 (+64) and a 4 - 5 month spread of 84 (+18) [4] - In the domestic spot market, the cheapest deliverable is still Shanghai civil gas at 4150. In Shandong, civil gas prices declined slightly, with refinery inventories increasing slightly, expected to stabilize or face pressure. Shandong ether - after carbon four remained stable overall, with stable downstream profits, and a mix of positive and negative news in the oil price and information. In East China, prices remained stable overall, with mainstream transactions between 4150 - 4700, demand slowly increasing, and refineries less willing to adjust prices at the end of the month, waiting for CP price guidance [4] 2. Weekly Views - In the week before the holiday, the market trended upward, and the month - spread fluctuated greatly due to capital behavior. The basis was -102 (-31), the 3 - 4 month spread was -164 (+139), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 81 (-10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 41.50 (+0) [4] - During the holiday, the external market price increased with the oil price due to geopolitical tensions. The PDI profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term start - up remained resilient. The domestic basis is still weak [4]