大越期货燃料油早报-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to sufficient supply and weak demand, the market structure of Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has further weakened. The spot spread of 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has declined for three consecutive trading days after hitting a nearly 11 - month high in the week ending February 20. The spot spread of Singapore 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is at a premium of $1.88 per ton, the highest level since January 29 [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 18 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is - 7 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of February 18 was 26.649 million barrels, an increase of 270,000 barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward - sloping [3]. - The high - sulfur main contract has short positions, with an increase in short positions; the low - sulfur main contract also has short positions, with a decrease in short positions [3]. - Iran is willing to take necessary measures to reach an agreement with the US before the nuclear negotiations later this week, easing geopolitical concerns slightly and causing a slight decline in fuel oil prices. FU2605 is expected to trade in the range of 2950 - 3000, and LU2605 in the range of 3440 - 3490 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The price of the FU main contract futures decreased from 2953 to 2934, a decline of 0.64%. The price of the LU main contract futures decreased from 3477 to 3464, a decline of 0.37%. The FU basis increased from - 19 to 18, an increase of 193.49%. The LU basis decreased from 7 to - 7, a decrease of 199% [5]. - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased from 508.00 to 500.00, a decline of 1.57%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel decreased from 510.00 to 505.00, a decline of 0.98%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 412.82 to 419.99, an increase of 1.74%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased from 494.50 to 488.32, a decline of 1.25%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 381.96 to 388.86, an increase of 1.81%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 666.13 to 671.50, an increase of 0.81% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Iran's situation is volatile; China's import quota is issued [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The spot spread of 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has declined, while the spot spread of Singapore 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is at a premium [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 18 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is - 7 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly at par with the futures [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward - sloping [3]. - The high - sulfur main contract has short positions, with an increase in short positions; the low - sulfur main contract also has short positions, with a decrease in short positions [3]. 4. Spread Data - The spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures is presented in the graph, with values ranging from - 3000 to 0 [10]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of February 18 was 26.649 million barrels, an increase of 270,000 barrels. The inventory has been increasing over time, with details of inventory and changes from December 2025 to February 2026 provided [3][7].