白糖产业日报-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - As of the current time, the domestic sugar production and sales progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of increased sugar production in Guangxi during the 2025/26 sugar - making season. Attention should be paid to the later production situation. The industrial inventory is still in an upward cycle, and the supply is at its peak. After the festival, there is a seasonal consumption off - season, and sugar prices may remain weak. However, in the short term, domestic sugar prices are relatively resistant to decline due to cost support [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,285 yuan/ton, with a change of 37. The main contract's open interest is 462,071 lots, with a change of 15,849. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14,461, with no change. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 83,994 lots. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,029 yuan/ton, with no change, and that of Thai sugar is 3,980 yuan/ton, with a change of 1. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,103 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,190 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi Nanning is 5,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with a change of 60. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons. The total sugar export volume from Brazil is 201.75 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with a change of 5.24. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 98.41 million tons, with a change of 59.18. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, with a change of 28. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,306 yuan/ton, with a change of 28. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 183 yuan/ton, with a change of 28. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 246 yuan/ton, with a change of 27 [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar is 58 million tons, with a change of 14. The cumulative import volume of sugar is 492 million tons, with a change of 58 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 359.04 million tons, with a change of 228.74. The monthly production volume of soft drinks is 1,342.1 million tons, with a change of 296.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 10.08%, with a change of 0.1. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 10.07%, with a change of 0.04. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.1%, with a change of - 0.91. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.17%, with a change of 0.01 [2] Industry News - According to the third production forecast released by the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the sugar production in India during the 2025 - 26 sugar - making season is expected to be 32.409 billion tons, the ethanol - sugar transfer volume is 3.1 billion tons, and the net sugar production is 29.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The initial inventory is 8.5 billion tons. The ICE raw sugar futures were nearly flat on Wednesday. The bleak sugar production outlook in India offset the impact of the rising Brazilian real. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on ICE closed down 0.01 cents or 0.1%, at 14.0 cents per pound [2]