房地产行业专题报告：房地产行业：上海调整限购，楼市小阳春可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [3] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes in major cities [10][11] - Policy measures are being implemented to support the market, including tax reductions and adjustments to purchase restrictions, which are expected to stabilize market expectations and improve transaction volumes [17][27] - The new housing market is lagging behind the second-hand market, with a notable decline in new housing supply in key cities [11][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In January, major cities saw a year-on-year increase of over 20% in second-hand housing transactions, contrasting with a decline in new housing supply, which dropped by over 40% in key cities [5][11] - The transaction window for the real estate market has extended due to the timing of the Spring Festival, leading to improved sales figures [10] Policy Environment - Recent policy changes include a reduction in the value-added tax on homes sold within two years from 5% to 3%, and the continuation of tax refunds for home exchanges, aimed at lowering transaction costs [17] - On February 25, 2026, Shanghai adjusted its purchase restrictions, allowing non-resident families and single adults to buy homes with a reduced social security requirement, and increased the maximum housing fund loan limit from 1.6 million to 2.4 million [17] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that 2026 will continue to focus on "city-specific policies to control growth, reduce inventory, and optimize supply," with ongoing pressure on new construction and investment chains [27] - The report highlights the potential for a gradual stabilization of housing prices, driven by increased transaction volumes in the second-hand market and supportive policy measures [17][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with sufficient core area inventory and new value, such as Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Resources Land [27] - It also notes opportunities in intermediary agencies as the proportion of second-hand transactions increases, highlighting companies like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [27]