铂钯金期货日报-20260226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed a divergent trend today. The macroeconomic situation shows that the US inflation and GDP data have weakened, but Fed officials have released cautious signals, weakening the market's bets on interest rate cuts this year. Tariffs and the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran have intensified again, leading to high market risk aversion. From a fundamental perspective, supply is constrained by various factors, and demand presents different characteristics for platinum and palladium. The report suggests temporary observation and provides price range expectations for London and Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 11.55 to 589.50, and palladium's main contract closing price decreased by 10.35 to 446.55. The main contract positions of platinum decreased by 277 to 10387, and those of palladium increased by 90 to 3179 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium increased by 7.58 to 591.60, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) increased by 5 to 436.00. The basis of the platinum main contract decreased by 3.97 to 2.10, and the basis of the palladium main contract increased by 15.35 to -10.55 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) decreased by 243 to 9966, and those of palladium decreased by 342 to 3003. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.80 to 220.40 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 5 to 293.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to increase by 25.60 to 261.60 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 27 to 287.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index decreased by 0.24 to 97.66, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.01 to 1.77%, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 1.62 to 17.93 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump announced in his State of the Union address that he would impose tariffs through other legal means and replace personal income tax with tariff revenue. He also expressed a preference for diplomatic solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue. Fed Governor Cook said that AI may lead to an increase in unemployment, and the Fed may face a dilemma in monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said it is not suitable to cut interest rates further until there is more evidence of continuous decline in inflation. Japanese Prime Minister Takamichi Sanae expressed concerns about the Bank of Japan's further interest rate hikes [2]. 3.6 View Summary - In terms of investment, platinum ETFs had a net inflow in 2025 but had a correction in February, leading to some profit - taking, while physical investment demand remained strong. Palladium investment demand was continuously weak, with limited marginal impact on prices. The report suggests temporary observation. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are 2200 and 2000 US dollars respectively, and for London palladium are 1800 and 1600 US dollars respectively. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may operate in the range of 460 - 650 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may operate in the range of 400 - 500 yuan/gram [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On February 26 at 21:30, the US unemployment claims data for the week ending February 21; on February 27 at 21:30, the US January PPI monthly and annual rates [2].