百济神州：2025 业绩快报：泽布放量符合预期，26 年收入利润有望稳步提升-20260227

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BeiGene [2][5][14]. Core Insights - In FY25, BeiGene achieved revenue of USD 5.34 billion, representing a 40% year-over-year increase, with product revenue of USD 5.28 billion, slightly exceeding management's guidance [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was USD 0.29 billion, a turnaround from a loss of USD 0.64 billion in FY24, indicating a successful operational recovery [3][11]. - Management projects FY26 revenue to be between USD 6.2 billion and USD 6.4 billion, with GAAP operating profit expected to be between USD 0.7 billion and USD 0.8 billion [3][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth is forecasted at 55% for FY25, 40% for FY26, and 20% for FY27 [9]. - Net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of USD 0.61 billion for FY26 and USD 1.04 billion for FY27, reflecting a 113% and 70% increase, respectively [9][14]. - Gross profit margin is expected to remain strong at around 87.5% for FY26 and FY27 [9]. Sales Performance - Zanubrutinib generated full-year revenue of USD 3.93 billion, up 49% year-over-year, with U.S. sales contributing USD 2.8 billion [12]. - Tislelizumab achieved revenue of USD 0.74 billion, marking a 19% increase year-over-year [13]. - Collaboration product sales in China reached USD 0.62 billion, driven by growth in specific drugs [13]. Future Catalysts - Key catalysts for 1H26 include the approval of Sonrotoclax for R/R MCL and interim analysis of zanubrutinib in 1L MCL [16]. - In 2H26, significant events include the submission for accelerated approval of BTK CDAC and the initiation of a Phase 3 trial for Sonrotoclax in combination therapy for multiple myeloma [16]. Valuation - The target price is set at HKD 212.09, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a WACC of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 4% [5][14].