建信期货集运指数日报-20260227

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - From the supply - demand fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. After the IEEPA tariff was ruled invalid, Trump announced a 10% tariff and an increase to 15% for 150 days. But according to the Kuala Lumpur Consensus, the current US tariffs on China are 10% general reciprocal tariffs and 10% fentanyl tariffs. Even if the tariff is increased to 15%, China's tariffs will still decrease. So, it's hard to trigger export rush in the short term. The demand for photovoltaic export rush is limited, and the shipping capacity supply in March is at a high level in the same period of history. The resumption of navigation in the Red Sea will further increase the shipping capacity supply pressure. Although leading shipping companies announced a price increase in March, the current price in early March still follows the end - February price. The off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization rather than actual implementation. Short - term geopolitical conflicts, low index, and European port congestion may lead to a phased strengthening of the index, providing short - selling opportunities for off - season contracts such as 04 and 06 [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Daily Market: After the Spring Festival, it is the transportation off - season. Trump's new tariff policy may not trigger export rush. Photovoltaic export demand is limited, and March shipping capacity supply is high. Red Sea resumption will increase supply pressure. Leading shipping companies' price increase may not be implemented. Short - term factors may lead to index strengthening, providing short - selling opportunities for 04 and 06 contracts [7] Group 5: Industry News - The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's tariffs under the IEEPA are illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the impact and urges the US to cancel the tariffs. The US CBP will stop collecting IEEPA - based tariffs. The European Parliament suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned countries using the ruling to face higher tariffs. Trump denied reports of war with Iran. Israel's plan to strengthen control in the West Bank was condemned by many countries. The Gemini Alliance restored the ME11/IMX route through the Red Sea - Suez Canal. Maersk reported port and shipping disruptions due to bad weather [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview 1. Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) decreased from 1607.27 on February 16 to 1573.51 on February 23, a decrease of 33.76 (-2.1%). SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) decreased from 1131.74 on February 16 to 1112.01 on February 23, a decrease of 19.73 (-1.7%) [11] 2. Futures Market of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - Information on the trading data of container shipping European routes futures contracts on February 26, including contract names, pre - settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] 3. Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][18]