建信期货豆粕日报-20260227

1. Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review 2.1 Futures Contract Quotes - For the Soybean Meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3064, the opening price was 3038, the highest price was 3050, the lowest price was 3021, the closing price was 3025, with a drop of 39 and a decline rate of -1.27%. The trading volume was 56,730, the open interest was 20,508, and the change in open interest was -45,241 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2824, the opening price was 2825, the highest price was 2847, the lowest price was 2818, the closing price was 2834, with an increase of 10 and a growth rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 828,719, the open interest was 2,021,035, and the change in open interest was 6,435 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2776, the opening price was 2786, the highest price was 2800, the lowest price was 2776, the closing price was 2795, with an increase of 19 and a growth rate of 0.68%. The trading volume was 43,095, the open interest was 498,828, and the change in open interest was 880 [6]. 2.2 External Market Conditions - During the holiday, the US soybean futures contracts on the external market were strong first and then weak, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range. The main contract was close to 1150 cents. The US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by Trump under the IEEPA were illegal. Currently, the IEEPA involves a total of 20% tariffs on China related to fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, but Trump subsequently invoked Article 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to announce a 15% tariff instead. The holiday fluctuations in US soybeans were mainly due to the game of future export demand expectations caused by tariff changes. Trump once said that China would purchase an additional 8 million tons of US soybeans, and there was an expectation that the US President would visit China at the end of March or early April, and the bilateral economic and trade relations were expected to be repaired, making the market optimistic about export demand and having an expectation of a downward adjustment of US soybean ending stocks [6]. 2.3 Weather Conditions - During the holiday, the situation in South America was good. The main soybean - producing areas in Argentina received relatively considerable rainfall. Although the temperature was still slightly higher than the same period of previous years, it alleviated some of the growth pressure on crops in the early stage. In the next two weeks, rainfall would be mainly concentrated in early March, with rainfall close to the same period of previous years and normal temperature forecasts. It was expected that the soybean yield prospects in Argentina would be stable, and there was no bullish boost [6]. 2.4 Domestic Market Conditions - After the holiday, the domestic market fluctuated and then rose, also factoring in the expectation of Sino - US trade easing. In addition, the near - end spot was in a seasonal de - stocking cycle. The current harvesting progress in Brazil was relatively slow, and there were transportation problems at some docks. Coupled with the long - awaited release of information on imported soybean auctions, there was a possibility of partial shortages at the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter. In the longer term, the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans would always have a certain suppressing effect on the market. The near - end contracts might have a small rebound, but the subsequent room for growth was limited [6]. 3. Industry News - According to the USDA Annual Outlook Forum, the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, which is in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next season will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, of which exports will increase by 125 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels, and crushing will increase by 85 million bushels to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending stocks will be basically flat at 355 million bushels. The Chief Economist of the US Department of Agriculture warned that the production cost is expected to remain high, which will continue to squeeze the planting profit margin [7]. - US President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, holding a highly anticipated meeting with China's top leaders. This visit will be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea last October, when they reached a trade truce agreement [15]. - According to BAGE, as of the week of February 18, rainfall occurred in the central and northern agricultural areas of Argentina. Although the distribution was uneven and the intensity varied, it significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of soybean crops are rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year. The proportion of poorly rated soybeans is 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [15]. 4. Data Overview - The data in the report is sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][12][13] - The report includes charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the Soybean Meal 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [13][14][17]