建信期货国债日报-20260227

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily - Date: February 27, 2026 - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - Under the pressure of profit - taking, tight capital, new property market policies, and a strong stock market, treasury bond futures continued to decline. The bond market may fluctuate weakly due to profit - taking needs after the Spring Festival, rising government bond supply pressure, and possible market gaming around holiday economic data and important meetings in March [7][11] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures continued to fall due to profit - taking pressure, tight capital, new property market policies, and a strong stock market [7] Interest Rate Bonds - Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with an increase of less than 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.8130%, up 1.5bp [8] Capital Market - This week faces dual disturbances of tax payment and month - end. The inter - bank capital was in a tight balance. Today, the net repurchase of reverse repurchase in the open market was 7.95 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR of bank deposits fell 1.73bp to 1.37%, and the 7 - day capital rate fell 2.33bp to around 1.48%. The medium - and long - term capital was stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.56% - 1.58% [9] Conclusion - During the Spring Festival, there were new changes in US tariffs. After the IEEPA tariff was invalidated, Trump announced a 10% tariff based on Trade Act 122 and planned to raise it to 15%. However, considering the cancelled IEEPA tariff, the short - term impact on China should be limited, and there is no need for an urgent increase in monetary policy. Institutions holding bonds during the Spring Festival may have profit - taking needs, and the supply pressure of government bonds will rise. Although the cash return forms a liquidity supplement, the central bank generally conducts net capital withdrawal after the holiday, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. Currently, the expectation of interest rate cuts may still be weak, and the market may be more worried about the supply pressure of government bonds caused by the increased fiscal policy during the Two Sessions [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, raising the economic growth forecast for South Korea this year to 2% [12] - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said that the central bank will carefully study data in March and April to decide whether to raise interest rates [12] - Iran's third - round indirect talks with the US officially began. Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqqi stated Iran's stance on the nuclear issue and sanctions lifting [12] - Shanghai optimized real estate policies, including adjusting housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund loan policies, and improving personal housing property tax policies [13] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs refuted the US accusation of China's nuclear explosion test, urging the US to abide by the "suspension of nuclear tests" commitment [13] 3.3 Data Overview - The data overview includes information on treasury bond futures (such as trading data of various contracts, inter - period spreads of main contracts, inter - variety spreads of main contracts, and main contract trends), the money market (such as SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate changes), and the derivatives market (such as Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves) [14][23][33]