LPG早报-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 26, the main contract PG2604 first rose and then fell, closing up at 4566 (+42), with the 4 - 5 month spread at 74 (+8). The night session closed at 4543 (-61), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 75 (+1) [1] - The cheapest deliverable in the domestic spot market is Shanghai civil gas at 4200. As the CP official price is approaching and transportation capacity is gradually recovering, the market is highly cautious. In Shandong, the civil gas price is stable with a slight decline, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4440 - 4500 yuan/ton. Driven by the shift from weakness to strength in the international LPG market, market enthusiasm has improved significantly, and the downstream product trend has rebounded. It is expected that the short - term market may stop falling and rebound. In the East China market, the price is stable with an upward trend, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4200 - 4700 yuan/ton. There is a positive boost from the news, and refineries are firm in their attitude, but some areas are still focused on sales and operate cautiously [1] - In the week before the holiday, the market trended upward, and the month spread fluctuated greatly due to capital behavior. The basis is - 102 (-31), the 3 - 4 month spread is - 164 (+139), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 81 (-10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+0). During the holiday, the overseas market price increased with the oil price due to geopolitical tensions. The PDH profit increased slightly but is still poor, and the short - term operation has resilience. The domestic basis is still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment may occur, and chemical demand also provides support, so there is room for the spot price to rebound. The 04 contract is priced based on the overseas market, and its valuation is within a reasonable range, and the 4 - 5 month spread valuation is neutral. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, but there is an expectation of weakness in the second quarter. Geopolitics is still a key factor and needs continuous attention [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Quotes - From February 12 to February 26, data on LPG prices in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, Shandong ether - post carbon four, paper import profit, and main contract basis are provided. On February 26, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG decreased by 10, East China LPG increased by 20, Shandong LPG decreased by 20, propane CFR South China remained unchanged, Shandong ether - post carbon four increased by 31, and other data also had corresponding changes [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The market trended upward before the holiday, and the month spread fluctuated greatly due to capital behavior. The basis and month spreads changed. The overseas market price increased during the holiday. The PDH profit is still poor but has a slight increase, and the short - term operation has resilience. The domestic basis is weak. After the holiday, there may be downstream replenishment and chemical demand support, and the spot price has room to rebound. The 04 contract valuation is reasonable, and the 4 - 5 month spread valuation is neutral. The overseas market is tight in the short term but may weaken in the second quarter, and geopolitics needs to be continuously monitored [1]