建信期货棉花日报-20260227

1. Report Information - Report Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure at high levels with a differentiated trend. The spot cotton price index for grade 328 has increased, and the basis difference in Xinjiang shows certain characteristics. The trading of pure - cotton yarn has not fully recovered, while the operating rate of cotton fabric factories is rising. There is an intention to increase prices, pending downstream acceptance [7][8]. - In the international market, the drought index in the main cotton - producing areas of the United States has slightly increased, and the drought is expected to continue from February to April. The U.S. grain - to - cotton price ratio is slightly lower than last year, and the cotton - planting area may increase slightly, but the high drought level could lead to a higher abandonment rate. The expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference restricts the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton. In the domestic market, the cumulative inspection volume has increased year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has started to decline. The downstream industry is still recovering after the holiday, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, depending on post - holiday demand, cotton - planting intention reports, and target price policies [9]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton shows a high - level pressured and differentiated trend. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 16,681 yuan/ton, up 352 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotations of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang have certain basis differences. The trading of pure - cotton yarn has not recovered, and some spinning mills have increased prices by 300 - 500 yuan. The operating rate of cotton fabric factories has increased, and they have an intention to increase prices [7][8]. - International Market: The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly increased, and the drought is expected to last from February to April. The U.S. grain - to - cotton price ratio is 6.68, slightly lower than last year. There is a possibility of a slight increase in the cotton - planting area, but the high drought level may lead to a higher abandonment rate. The expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference after the holiday restricts the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton [9]. - Domestic Market: As of February 25, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume is 747.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%, with Xinjiang accounting for 737.95 million tons. As of mid - February, the domestic commercial cotton inventory is 550.37 million tons, showing a downward trend with a year - on - year decrease of 17.74 million tons. The downstream industry is still recovering after the holiday, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9]. 4.2 Industry News - As of February 25, 2026, in the 2025 cotton year, 1099 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton. The national cumulative inspection volume is 747.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%, with Xinjiang accounting for 737.95 million tons and the inland area accounting for 6.18 million tons [10]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis differences, inventory, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][20]