集运早报-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 04 contract is unlikely to decline significantly in the short - term due to potential rush shipments in March that may alleviate the decline slope of freight rates from March to April, along with geopolitical tensions and macro - sentiment. However, the spot market is under great pressure, and the lack of actual impact from rush shipments and the decline in spot prices are leading the futures prices down. The current valuation is neutral, and investors should wait for opportunities to short on rallies [3]. - For far - month contracts, it is difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, shipping companies have a large space for price adjustment, and the open interest is not high. Therefore, cautious operation is recommended. The 10 - contract valuation is relatively high, and shorting on rallies is advisable [3]. - For new contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The overall strategy is to short the 09 contract and go long on the 07 contract, but the valuations given by the market are relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the node of the off - season transition, and it is difficult to take a unilateral position. It is recommended to wait for the 4 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2612 are 1236.0, 1414.8, 1621.1, 1812.0, 1715.0, 1325.0, 1152.9, and 1435.0 respectively, with price changes of - 3.33%, - 1.41%, - 2.28%, - 0.92%, - 0.88%, 0.23%, - 0.46%, and - 0.66% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2612 are 28825, 178, 5854, 41, 384, 0, 1509, and 19 respectively. The open interests are 36174, 300, 16649, 225, 1381, 142, 10314, and 134 respectively, with open - interest changes of 819, 44, 287, 18, 44, 2, 413, and 8 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads of EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 are - 385.1, - 178.8, and 468.2 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 4.7, - 22.4, and - 32.6, and week - on - week changes of - 70.1, - 97.4, and 41.3 [2]. Spot Market Data - Spot Index Changes: The spot index (Oriental Line) on 2026/2/23 is 1573.51 points, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous period. The SCFI (Oriental Line) on 2026/2/13 is 1361 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 2.99% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - Week 7 - 9: MSK opened at 1950 dollars (a decrease of 100 dollars compared to the previous period), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, and OA was 2300 dollars. The central price was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. In March, shipping companies announced price increases, with MSC taking the lead, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, raising the price to 3000 - 3100 dollars [4]. - Week 10: MSK opened at 1950 dollars. MSC dropped to 2140 dollars (the same as the end of February). OOCL's online price dropped to 2380 dollars (an increase of 100 dollars compared to the previous period), EMC rose to 2530 dollars, YML was 2050 dollars, and ONE opened at 2200 dollars (an increase of 200 dollars compared to the previous period) [4]. - Week 11: MSK opened at 1850 dollars (a decrease of 100 dollars compared to the previous period). YML was 2050 dollars, and ONE reported 2200 dollars. It is expected that OA and PA will offer special - price ships or price cuts for the March shipping period [4]. Related News - Geopolitical News: On February 26, 2026, the Israeli Defense Forces launched an attack on Hezbollah's "Radwan Force" infrastructure in the Baalbek region of Lebanon, stating that Hezbollah had repeatedly violated the cease - fire agreement. Hezbollah has not responded yet [5]. - Diplomatic News: On February 26, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States had made good progress, and the two sides' technical teams will hold technical negotiations in Vienna, Austria on March 2. However, sources familiar with the Geneva Iran - US nuclear negotiations said that the differences between the two sides are still large, and the situation is not optimistic [5]. - Trade News: US Trade Representative Greer said that the 10% global tariff implemented by President Trump will be raised to 15% for "some" countries, and "even higher for others." The tariff on China is expected to remain at the current level [5].