大越期货玻璃早报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is currently in a weak state. With a slight recovery in production profit, cold - repair is less than expected, resulting in low supply. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. The short - term outlook is for a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1064 yuan/ton to 1058 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.56%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 944 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 120 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton, a change of - 5.00% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has slightly recovered, but the production line start - up rate and daily melting capacity are at historically low levels. The number of national float glass production line starts is 211, with a start - up rate of 71.86%, and the daily melting capacity is 14.98 tons [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 469.44 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level. The funds recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [24][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 76.008 million weight boxes, an increase of 37.32% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 5510 tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 5310 tons, with a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [40].