大越期货尿素早报-20260227

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with high daily production, high supply pressure, weak industrial demand, good reserve demand, and significant inventory destocking. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main logic for price movement lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamentals - Current daily production and operating rates are at high levels compared to the same period. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural - gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high. Overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak, with low operating rates for compound fertilizers and melamine. Agricultural reserve demand is good, and there is still room for growth with the start of spring - plowing demand after the festival. Comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious destocking pattern. The external market price remains high, and the export price difference continues to widen. The spot price of the delivery product is 1,830 (+0) [4]. Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 6, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, indicating a neutral situation [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive UR inventory is 119.6 million tons (+19.6), considered neutral [4]. Futures Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. Main Positions - The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. Expectation - The main UR contract is expected to fluctuate. With high daily production, weak industrial demand, good reserve demand, and significant inventory destocking, the UR is expected to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. Group 5: Spot and Futures Market Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1,830 with no change; Shandong spot price is 1,860 with no change; Henan spot price is 1,830 with no change; FOB China price is 3,205 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1,836, down 2; the basis is - 6, up 2; UR01 price is 1,784, down 9; UR05 price is 1,836, down 2; UR09 price is 1,801, down 8 [6]. Inventory - Warehouse receipts are 5,958, down 2,140; UR comprehensive inventory is 119.6 million tons; UR factory inventory is 103.0 million tons; UR port inventory is 16.6 million tons [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | - | 1,956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] Group 7: Other Information - Data sources: Steel Union, Dayue Futures collation [8][11][13][15]